The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win - The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin" 

Should Win - The Daniels "Everything Everywhere All at Once", Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin", or Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"

Commentary - This feels like the Get Out year, where you also had Three Billboards and Lady Bird, and nobody knew who to choose. The WGA vs. the BAFTA. Do they sweep with the BP frontrunner? Or do they give the consolation prize to McDonagh or Spielberg and Kushner. I am personally good whomever they choose, but I feel that the overwhelming love for Everything Everywhere All at Once will lead to a mini-sweep. 

Best Adapted Screeplay

Will Win - Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Could Win - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell "All Quiet On the Western Front" or Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig, and Justin Marks "Top Gun: Maverick"

Should Win - Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

Commentary - A tight race. I am going with a more traditional screenplay winner in Women Talking, over the war epic and the action adventure epic, neither of which fit the usual bill for winning this award. But All Quiet did win at BAFTA (where Women Talking was snubbed), and is quiet popular. It could surprise.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win - Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio 

Could Win - Turning Red

Should Win - Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Commentary - The love Pixar, but it looks like GDT's Pinocchio is going to easily win here after sweeping every major award.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win - Navalny 

Could Win - Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Should Win - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Commentary - All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is a masterpiece, and I still have my fingers crossed that it triumphs in an upset. But I think this is between the feel good favorite of Fire of Love and the politically relevant favorite of Navalny. Given the headlines, I think these voters are going to want to give Navalny and its anti-Putin message some air time on a global stage.

Best International Feature

Will Win - All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Win - The Quiet Girl or Argentina, 1985

Should Win - Close

Commentary - Duh.