The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress

Best Actor

Will Win - Austin Butler "Elvis"

Could Win - Brendan Fraser "The Whale" or Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Should Win - Brendan Fraser "The Whale"

Commentary - Look I have nothing against Austin Butler’s performance, he did a great job as Elvis, but boy is he thirsty for that Oscar. The whole keeping his accent thing, the constant butt kissing this entire season. He wants that Oscar, and he is probably going to get it, but he tried way too hard. His film is going to win several Oscars, and has the Best Picture nod. But I really hope Brendan Fraser surprises. He has SAG and Critics Choice, Butler has BAFTA and the Globe. I think Butler has played the right game and hit the right notes. I also am hearing rumblings that a third contender, Colin Farrell, could take advantage of the split and surprise. That would be quite the turn of events.

Best Actress

Will Win - Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Cate Blanchett "TAR"

Should Win - Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Commentary - So this is two-way race between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Blanchett is still strong as TAR has a lot of support and she has the BAFTA, but in a tough two way race, and the SAG going to Michelle Yeoh, it feels like momentum is moving in her direction. 

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Barry Keoghan "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Should Win - Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Commentary - Barry Keoghan won at BAFTA, and he is the most likely to upset. But this is Ke Huy Quan’s to lose. He has the performance, the comeback story, and has won everything else. I think he is the most solid of the four categories.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Jamie Lee Curtis "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Could Win - Kerry Condon "The Banshees of Inisherin" or Angela Bassett "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

Should Win - Angela Bassett "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

Commentary - A tight three-way race that is poised to be a jaw-dropper until the end. Bassett won the Globe and the Critics Choice, but I worry that the Marvel factor hurts her. Kerry Condon is really an intriguing pick, after her BAFTA win. But SAG has been a major predictor for this award in recent years, and Jamie Lee Curtis' upset win has made me switch to her in a close race.