Will Win - Volker Bertelmann "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Could Win - John Williams "The Fabelmans" or Justin Hurwitz "Babylon"
Should Win - John Williams "The Fabelmans"
Commentary - This category has few precursors, which always makes it a hard one to predict. All Quiet won the BAFTA, Babylon won the Globe, and there has been a lot of talk about John Williams winning for the first time in decades. I am going with war epic All Quiet, as the only crossover award, and a big Best Picture contender. But this one could surprise, and personally I want to see Williams win one more time.
Best Original Song
Will Win - RRR - Naatu Naatu
Could Win - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Lift Me Up
Should Win - RRR - Naatu Naatu
Commentary - Despite RRR not getting a lot of traction with the industry, the infectious Naatu Naatu has managed to be strong throughout the season. I think it wins. But, Rihanna, Super Bowl Halftime Show, lots of positive buzz. Watch out for Lift Me Up.
Best Sound
Will Win - Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win - All Quiet on the Western Front or Elvis
Should Win - Top Gun: Maverick
Commentary - War Movie, movie musical biopic, both are natural winners here. And All Quiet won the BAFTA. But I think that CAS winner, and film that will do much better with American voters than British ones, Top Gun: Maverick, and film whose sound work is a character in the film, will take this award in an interestingly tight race.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win - Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win - Top Gun: Maverick or All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win - Avatar: The Way of Water
Commentary - I would be jaw-dropped if anything else won. And honestly, whatever you think of Avatar, it is easily the best of the bunch.
Best Animated Short
Will Win - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
Could Win - Ice Merchants, My Year of Dicks
Should Win - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
Best Documentary Short
Will Win - The Elephant Whisperers
Could Win - Stranger at the Gate
Should Win - The Elephant Whisperers
Best Live Action Short
Will Win - Le Pupille
Could Win - An Irish Goodbye
Should Win - Le Pupille
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