The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects, and Shorts

Best Original Score

Will Win - Volker Bertelmann "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Could Win - John Williams "The Fabelmans" or Justin Hurwitz "Babylon"

Should Win - John Williams "The Fabelmans"

Commentary - This category has few precursors, which always makes it a hard one to predict. All Quiet won the BAFTA, Babylon won the Globe, and there has been a lot of talk about John Williams winning for the first time in decades. I am going with war epic All Quiet, as the only crossover award, and a big Best Picture contender. But this one could surprise, and personally I want to see Williams win one more time. 

Best Original Song

Will Win - RRR - Naatu Naatu

Could Win - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Lift Me Up

Should Win - RRR - Naatu Naatu

Commentary - Despite RRR not getting a lot of traction with the industry, the infectious Naatu Naatu has managed to be strong throughout the season. I think it wins. But, Rihanna, Super Bowl Halftime Show, lots of positive buzz. Watch out for Lift Me Up.

Best Sound

Will Win - Top Gun: Maverick

Could Win - All Quiet on the Western Front or Elvis

Should Win - Top Gun: Maverick

Commentary - War Movie, movie musical biopic, both are natural winners here. And All Quiet won the BAFTA. But I think that CAS winner, and film that will do much better with American voters than British ones, Top Gun: Maverick, and film whose sound work is a character in the film, will take this award in an interestingly tight race. 

Best Visual Effects

Will Win - Avatar: The Way of Water

Could Win - Top Gun: Maverick or All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win - Avatar: The Way of Water

Commentary - I would be jaw-dropped if anything else won. And honestly, whatever you think of Avatar, it is easily the best of the bunch.

Best Animated Short

Will Win - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

Could Win - Ice Merchants, My Year of Dicks

Should Win - The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

Best Documentary Short

Will Win - The Elephant Whisperers

Could Win - Stranger at the Gate

Should Win - The Elephant Whisperers

Best Live Action Short

Will Win - Le Pupille

Could Win - An Irish Goodbye

Should Win - Le Pupille