The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Post-Festival Nomination Predictions

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Lost Daughter

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Other Contenders - tick, tick...boom!, Being the Ricardos, Spencer, CODA, C'mon C'mon, House of Gucci, Flee, A Hero, Parallel Mothers, Passing, The Last Duel, Mass, The Hand of God, The French Dispatch, Cyrano, Red Rocket, Mothering Sunday, No Time to Die, A Journal for Jordan, Jockey

Commentary - The race is heating up! On the eve of the start of the first critics awards, the race is packed. West Side Story just premeried, and the reactions were raves. Never discount Steven Spielberg. Plus, the production value is going to be popular among the tech voters. So will the palate of Nightmare Alley (last sight unseen) and Dune. Anne Thompson always says you build a Best Picture nominee across the guilds. These three films are the kind of visual treats that do well across these voters. The top three remain, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, and Belfast, but will have to survive the onslaught of new contenders. Licorice Pizza is apparently PTA's warmest film yet, and these voters love him and his work. Finally, while it might prove to be divisive, it apparently will end up being less divisive than Vice. Of course I am speaking of Don't Look Up, which could sweep nods like Vice and The Big Short did before. Finally, The Tragedy of Macbeth is getting a muted response, despite rave reviews. But it will do well with the crafts and the actors, and is Joel Coen + Denzel Washington + Frances McDormand cannot be ignored. Finally, after its showing at the Gotham Awards, The Lost Daughter is clearly a contender that cannot be ignored. But there are plenty of projects lurking. Lin-Manuel Mirand and tick, tick...boom! will be a favorite among theater fanatics, Being the Ricardos is doing better than expected, CODA is still a heartwarming favorite, and Spencer is very much in the mix. Mike Mills, Sean Baker, and Wes Anderson have indie favorites, Sorrentino, Farhadi and Almodovar are hoping to continue the foreign-language boon in this category, and I think a lot of folks are hoping for a blockbuster like No Time to Die to get nominated, mostly to bring audiences back to the ceremony.