The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Nomination Predictions - Best Actor

2022 Post-Nomination Predictions

Bradley Cooper "Nightmare Alley"

Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog" 

Leonardo DiCaprio "Don't Look Up"

Will Smith "King Richard"

Denzel Washington "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Other Contenders - Joaquin Phoenix "C'mon C'mon", Andew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!", Peter Dinklage "Cyrano", Adam Driver "House of Gucci", Clifton Collins Jr. "Jockey", Nicholas Cage "Pig", Simon Rex "Red Rocket", Javier Bardem "Being the Ricardos", Anthony Ramos "In the Heights", Jonathan Majors "The Harder They Fall", Timothee Chalamet "Dune", Jude Hill "Belfast", Cooper Hoffman "Licorice Pizza", Michael B. Jordan "A Journal for Jordan", Caleb Landry Jones "Nitram", Oscar Isaac "The Card Counter", Jake Gyllenhaal "The Guilty", Amir Jadidi "A Hero", Dev Patel "The Green Knight", Winston Duke "Nine Days", Ansel Elgort "West Side Story", Daniel Craig "No Time to Die"

Commentary - A stacked race with lots of returning contenders. Will Smith leads the way, and may earn his first Oscar for his passion project King Richard. Denzel Washington leads The Tragedy of Macbeth, and has gotten great reviews. Leonardo DiCaprio for Don't Look Up and Bradley Cooper for Nightmare Alley are big stars in yet unknown entities, but with Adam McKay and Guillermo Del Toro helming the projects, I expect them to be a part of this race. Finally, Benedict Cumberbatch is getting rave marks for The Power of the Dog, a leading Best Picture contender. Beyond those five, Joaquin Phoenix returns in the polar opposite of his winning role in Joker. First reactions to tick, tick...boom! are positive, boosting Andrew Garfield's chances. Adam Driver might miss out after mixed first reactions to House of Gucci. Other previous winners and nominees include Javier Bardem as Ricky Ricardo, Timothee Chalamet in Dune, Nicholas Cage in his best role in years in Pig, Jake Gyllenhaal, and Dev Patel. Veteran character actor Clifton Collins Jr. is getting a lot of notice for Jockey, as is Peter Dinklage for Cyrano. Jonathan Majors is fresh off an Emmy nomination, Jude Hill is in a Best Picture front runner, Cooper Hoffman is getting great early notices in a Paul Thomas Anderson film, Michael B. Jordan is always great, Anthony Ramos should be in consideration, Caleb Landry Jones is getting rave reviews, as are Simon Rex, Amir Jadidi, Winston Duke, and Oscar Isaac. Finally, Daniel Craig's last outing as James Bond could inspire nostalgic voters.