Post-Festival Nomination Predictions
Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"
Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"
Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"
Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley"
Denis Villeneuve "Dune"
Other Contenders - Adam McKay "Don't Look Up", Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Reinaldo Marcus King "King Richard", Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers", Asghar Farhadi "A Hero", Pablo Lorrain "Spencer", Lin-Manuel Miranda "tick, tick...boom!", Steven Spielberg "West Side Story", Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter", Ridley Scott "House of Gucci", Ridley Scott "The Last Duel", Rebecca Hall "Passing", Sian Heder "CODA", Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos", Mike Mills "C'mon C'mon", Joe Wright "Cyrano", Paolo Sorrentino "The Hand of God", Wes Anderson "The French Dispatch", Sean Baker "Red Rocket"
Commentary - A tough category that could get even tougher down the stretch. Jane Campion feels like the front runner so far, with Kenneth Branagh not far behind. The directors will pick Campion, but he bigger Academy may go with a more populist pick. Denis Villeneuve has done the impossible and the "un-filmable" Dune filmable. He is a previous nominee as well. Licorice Pizza is getting rave reviews, and the Director's Branch will love Paul Thomas Anderson's work. Finally, I am reserving a slot for Guillermo Del Toro, who won the last time he had a film in contention. Adam McKay is the sixth slot, because apparently Don't Look Up might be divisive, but so was Vice, and he got nominated. King Richard may be a huge contender, but I have a feeling that somehow Reinaldo Marcus King will be left out of the top five. Joel Coen is getting great notices for The Tragedy of Macbeth, and again he is a previous winner. Pedro Almodovar, Paolo Sorrentino, or Ashgar Fahardi could be this year's foreign language film nominee. Steven Spielberg is tackling a classic, Ridley Scott has two contenders, Lin-Manuel Miranda directs a love letter to theater, and Maggie Gyllenhaal, Sian Heder and Rebecca Hall could join Jane Campion. I would also watch out for Joe Wright, Wes Anderson, Sean Baker, Mike Mills, and of course, Aaron Sorkin.
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