Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win - James Ivory "Call Me By Your Name"
Could Win - Virgil Williams and Dee Rees "Mudbound"
Should Win - James Ivory "Call Me By Your Name" or Logan
Commentary - In this weird year, only one of the Best Picture nominees made the cut in this category. Mudbound has a lot of support, and if there is an upset brewing, that is the one to take down Call Me By Your Name. But after WGA and BAFTA, and the reception that the legendary James Ivory has received when he wins these awards, I think this is Ivory's to lose.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - Jordan Peele "Get Out"
Could Win - Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Should Win - Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird"
Commentary - In recent years, we have seen truly original projects win out like Her, Midnight in Paris, Birdman, etc. BAFTA went McDonagh, WGA went Peele, GG went McDonagh, and Critics Choice went Peele. So it is literally 50/50 in terms of the big four awards leading up to the Oscars. No matter what happens in Best Picture, I think they are going to give Get Out something, and of the two screenplays, this truly is the most original of the bunch. In a squeaker, I am going for Peele.