Monday, January 16, 2017

The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Costume Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, and Best Production Design

Best Costume Design
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hail, Caesar!
Jackie
La La Land

Other Contenders - Allied, The Dressmaker, Hidden Figures, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, Live By Night, Love & Friendship, Rules Don't Apply, Fences, Doctor Strange, Kubo and the Two Strings, Captain Fantastic, Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Cafe Society, Nocturnal Animals, Lion

Commentary - I thought maybe something like Allied or Cafe Society would emerge here despite lack of support across the board, but when they both missed the CDG nomination, that hurt them. I think Florence Foster Jenkins and Jackie are locks from the period side of things. Normally contemporary costumes don't do as well here, but the vibrant ones from La La Land stand do do very well with voters. The last slot is tricky, but with the CDG nomination, I think that the varied and vast costumes of Hail, Caesar! might sway enough voters for a nomination.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
A Man Called Ove

Other Contenders - Star Trek Beyond, Hail, Caesar!, Suicide Squad, The Dressmaker

Commentary - Star Trek seems like an easy bet here, but Into Darkness missed out. Plus with Deadpool doing so well on the circuit, its got to get at least one nomination. Florence Foster Jenkins comes from some of the same folks behind the Iron Lady win not too long ago, and usually a biopic gets in. That least one slot, and these M & H folks usually throw us a curveball, including often a foreign contender. So I think that A Man Called Ove will actually end up with two Oscar nominations come next Tuesday.

Best Production Design
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land

Other Contenders - Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, Florence Foster Jenkins, Cafe Society, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Fences, Silence, Suicide Squad, The Dressmaker, Captain Fantastic, Rules Don't Apply, The Jungle Book, Allied, Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children, Captain America: Civil War, Live By Night

Commentary -  This is a really strong category, and I could see these branch voters going a variety of ways. La La Land and Fantastic Beasts seem like locks, and Arrival feels strong as sci-fi films have found a footing here recently. The last two slots are tricky. Jackie and Nocturnal Animals could slip in, and don't discount Rogue One, Miss Peregrine's, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, Fences, Passengers, Cafe Society, and Florence Foster Jenkins. But I think that, like in Costume Design, that the variety of beautiful sets on display in Hail, Caesar will win over voters.

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