Best Picture - Drama
Will Win - Manchester By the Sea
Could Win - Moonlight or Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win - Manchester By the Sea
Commentary - Moonlight has been a critical favorite all year, but I think that these voters will prefer Manchester in a close race. Is there a wild card? Yes and it is Hacksaw Ridge. This body clearly loves themselves some Mel Gibson (more than most folks at this point), and it could surprise.
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - La La Land
Could Win - 20th Century Women or Deadpool
Should Win - La La Land
Commentary - 20th Century Women was great and Deadpool would be an inspired choice, but if anything other than La La Land wins here, prepare to be jaw-dropped.
Best Actor - Drama
Will Win - Casey Affleck "Manchester By the Sea"
Could Win - Denzel Washington "Fences"
Should Win - Affleck or Denzel Washington "Fences"
Commentary - I keep expecting a Denzel Washington to make a comeback, but I feel like it will happen at SAG. I fully expect Casey Affleck to continue his streak with the critics groups.
Best Actress - Drama
Will Win - Natalie Portman "Jackie"
Could Win - Amy Adams "Arrival" or Isabelle Huppert "Elle"
Should Win - Amy Adams "Arrival"
Commentary - After the Critics Choice victory, a lot of folks are predicting Natalie Portman, and I agree with them. But it would not shock me to see a foreign actress like Isabelle Huppert or Golden Globe favorite Amy Adams upset.
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Ryan Gosling "La La Land"
Could Win - Ryan Reynolds "Deadpool"
Should Win - Either Ryan would be fine
Commentary - Gosling, I assume, will be swept up in the La La Land love. But don't sleep on Ryan Reynolds. It may seem out of the realm of possibility, but lately we have seen a lot more Deadpool love than I thought was out there.
Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Emma Stone "La La Land"
Could Win - Annette Bening "20th Century Women" or Meryl Streep "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Should Win - Stone or Bening
Commentary - Annette Bening has won this category before, and while she is getting the Cecille B. DeMille Award, never sleep on the HFPA love of the great Meryl Streep. But Emma Stone is a genuine star, La La Land is going to win the most awards of any film, and I find it hard to believe that Stone will not walk away with a Golden Globe award.
Will Win - Damien Chazelle "La La Land"
Could Win - Kenneth Lonergan "Manchester By the Sea" Or Barry Jenkins "Moonlight"
Should Win - Chazelle
Commentary - The Oscar for Best Director is still up in the air depending on how Best Picture shakes down. But I would be surprised in HFPA voters didn't pick Chazelle.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Mahershala Ali "Moonlight"
Could Win - Jeff Bridges "Hell or High Water"
Should Win - Ali
Commentary - Until something else wins, its Mahershala Ali and Viola Davis till the end.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Viola Davis "Fences"
Could Win - Michelle Williams "Manchester By the Sea"
Should Win - Davis
Commentary - See Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Kenneth Lonergan "Manchester By the Sea"
Could Win - Barry Jenkins "Moonlight" and Tom Ford "Nocturnal Animals"
Should Win - Manchester By the Sea
Commentary - Lonergan is an incredible writer, and even if Best Picture goes another way, I feel like this is a solid category for Manchester.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win - Zootopia
Could Win - Moana
Should Win - Zootopia
Commentary - Zootopia seems like the easy front runner for this category across the many different ceremonies, and it is easily the best of the bunch. If anything beats it, I think it is Moana.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win - Toni Erdmann
Could Win - Elle
Should Win - Toni Erdmann
Commentary - Toni Erdmann is easily the best of the bunch, and has gotten the most critical attention. While I think that the Oscar could see an upset with An Man Called Ove, here its Erdmann for the win.
Best Original Score
Will Win - Justin Hurwitz "La La Land"
Could Win- Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch "Hidden Figures" or Johann Johannson "Arrival"
Should Win - Justin Hurwitz "La La Land"
Commentary - La La Land is a musical with a completely original score. It wins this category, unless Pharrel Williams' name on a ballot grabs some voters.
Best Original Song
Will Win - Moana - How Far I'll Go
Could Win - La La Land - City of Stars or Trolls - Can't Stop This Feeling
Should Win - La La Land - City of Stars
Commentary - If anything can derail the La La Land train, it is Lin-Manuel Miranda. This category has always gone to a big musical star, and Miranda has had the year of a lifetime. Also look out for Timberlake with his Grammy-nominated tune from Trolls.