Best Film Ensemble
Will Win - Fences
Could Win - Moonlight or Hidden Figures or Manchester By the Sea
Should Win - Any of the four above
Commentary - Moonlight needs to win here if it has any chance of upsetting La La Land, which it really does, make no mistake. But the actors have four choices (sorry Captain Fantastic), and they are all led by incredible casts, and all four could win. Without La La Land in this category, it becomes a real battle. SAG could cement a La La Land opponent with a win for Moonlight or Manchester By the Sea. Or SAG could reward Fences or Hidden Figures, films that are lifted by their performances. Fences is one of those plays, and now films, that actors watch and read, and understand to be tour de force. I think that actors will take the chance to reward a film that probably won't go anywhere else. It is this years' The Help or Inglourious Basterds. It is probably an out of bounds pick, but like I said, the La La Land vacuum is leaving an interesting hole. Also watch out for Hidden Figures. Most folks are predicting Moonlight, and that is probably the best bet. But both Fences and Hidden Figures are dark horses that should not be discounted.
Will Win - Casey Affleck "Manchester By the Sea"
Could Win - Denzel Washington "Fences"
Should Win - Washington or Affleck
Commentary - This is the night that this race is decided. Washington has never won a SAG Award, and this is a powerhouse of acting that I think actors will appreciate. But Affleck has won everything so far, and I think he is on the train to Oscar. He has the momentum, and he is an actor's actor, and I think they will want to reward Manchester By the Sea somewhere. This is the category to do so.
Will Win - Emma Stone "La La Land"
Could Win - Natalie Portman "Jackie" or Meryl Streep "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Should Win - Stone
Commentary - La La Land missing the SAG ensemble nod was big, but I don't think it will go away empty-handed. Stone has some competition with Portman and Streep, and this will be the real test to see who wins of the three at the Oscars. Still Stone's character is something that these actors can identify with, and she has the momentum as La La Land continues to bulldoze its way through awards season.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Mahershala Ali "Moonlight"
Could Win - Jeff Bridges "Hell or High Water" or Lucas Hedges "Manchester By the Sea"
Should Win - Ali or Hedges
Commentary - After the Globes threw a wrench into this category, we are all kind of hanging on to see if anything else dramatic happens. I think that Mahershala Ali (who is also in Hidden Figures which definitely helps) gets back on track tonight, and continues his journey to an Oscar
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Viola Davis "Fences"
Could Win - Any of the other four
Should Win - Davis
Commentary - Davis is beloved by this group, and is the clear Oscar front runner. She also happens to be in a good spot because I can't even think of who is in second place. This is an incredible category of actresses top to bottom, so it is not a commentary on quality. It's just that I could make a case for all four being the potential second place, which means it will be hard for someone to beat Davis.
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series - Downton Abbey
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series - Orange is the New Black
Best Actor in a Drama Series - John Lithgow "The Crown"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Claire Foy "The Crown"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Uzo Aduba "Orange is the New Black"
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Courtney B. Vance "The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Sarah Paulson "The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story"
Best Stunt Ensemble (Film) - Hacksaw Ridge
Best Stunt Ensemble (Television) - Game of Thrones