Sunday, December 18, 2016

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Pre-Guild Predictions
Mahershala Ali "Moonlight"
Jeff Bridges "Hell or High Water"
Hugh Grant "Florence Foster Jenkins"
Lucas Hedges "Manchester By the Sea"
Dev Patel "Lion"

Other Contenders - Ben Foster "Hell or High Water" Simon Helberg "Florence Foster Jenkins", Michael Shannon "Nocturnal Animals", Aaron-Taylor Johnson "Nocturnal Animals", Kevin Costner "Hidden Figures", Stephen McKinley Henderson "Fences", Mykelti Williamson "Fences", Issey Ogata "Silence"

Commentary - After the WTF nominations that were the Golden Globes, the SAG nominations brought everything back into perspective. While I would not discount Aaron Taylor-Johnson, I think that the Academy is not going to like Nocturnal Animals the way the HFPA did, and if someone does get in, I would put money on previous nominee Michael Shannon instead. As for Simon Helberg, while I think Florence Foster Jenkins will surprise in several categories come Oscar morning, I think that Grant, who will be supporting here instead of lead like he is at the Globes, will come out on top, as he did at SAG. Dev Patel keeps racking up nods as Lion quietly continues to be a force, Jeff Bridges is definitely in, and while Lucas Hedges missed the Globe, the SAG is much more important. Clearly the industry loves this movie, and this performance. I think he's in. Ben Foster probably can't make it in up against his beloved co-star, the Fences guys needed SAG to get in the conversation, Kevin Costner is a possibility, and while Silence seems to be silenced (pun-intended), Issey Ogata is getting some notices and could be a dark horse.

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