The Academy has chosen to move Moonlight and Loving to Adapted Screenplay, really shaking up the screenplay races. Moonlight was adapted from an un-produced play, and Loving was deemed adapted from a 2011 documentary. Here are my updated predictions for Screenplay:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Eric Heisserer "Arrival"
August Wilson "Fences"
Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan "Hacksaw Ridge"
Luke Davies "Lion"
Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney "Moonlight"
Unfortunately, there are now too many Best Picture contenders ahead of Loving, but it could easily take out one of these films.
Best Original Screenplay
Matt Ross "Captain Fantastic"
Taylor Sheridan "Hell or High Water"
Damien Chazelle "La La Land"
Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos "The Lobster"
Kenneth Lonergan "Manchester by the Sea"