The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture

Will Win - CODA

Should Win - Drive My Car or Dune

Could Win - The Power of the Dog

Commentary - If I were a voting member, the haunting Drive My Car and the epic Dune would top my ballot. But alas, this feels like a battle between the Goliath of The Power of the Dog and the David of CODA. When I finally set down and watched The Power of the Dog, I immediately wondered about its chances on the preferential ballot. But then it won the DGA, got 12 nominations, and it truly felt like a front runner. My initial suspicions were correct as CODA, the feel good favorite that makes you stand up and cheer, won the SAG and the PGA. The Power of the Dog is clearly a film with a lot of detractors, which hurts it in this voting system, and it is hard to root against the power of CODA's message. I think it wins in an upset that turns out might not be as surprising as we thought. 

Best Director

Will Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Could Win - Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Commentary - Jane Campion is winning this in a lock. She has won every major award, and her work in The Power of the Dog is worthy.