The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects

Best Cinematography

Will Win - Greig Fraser "Dune"

Could Win - Ari Wegner "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Greig Fraser "Dune"

Commentary - This category stumped me last year. But this year, BAFTA and ASC matched up. The visuals of Dune are too extraordinary to deny. The Power of the Dog is the potential upset, but this is Fraser's to lose.

Best Costume Design

Will Win - Cruella

Could Win - Dune

Should Win - Cruella

Commentary - Cruella won the BAFTA, the CDG, and, being a movie about fashion, has the kind of big and bold costumes that voters love. But I am getting Mad Max vibes from Dune, who won this award, which felt odd in the pantheon of winners (ironically it was Jenny Beavan for Mad Max, who did the costumes for Cruella). So watch out for Dune, which also won the CDG, and could be a tech awards juggernaut.

Best Film Editing

Will Win - Dune

Could Win - The Power of the Dog or King Richard

Should Win - tick, tick...boom!

Commentary - The inclusion of tick, tick...boom! was so nice to see, and even though I know it won't win, the nomination is an excellent choice. King Richard won the ACE Eddie in a surprise, and The Power of the Dog is a big Best Picture contender. BAFTA went for No Time to Die, which does not help us. I feel like this is a repeat of the Gravity year, where it won neither of the major precursors, but was the technical juggernaut. This race could end in a surprise (I wouldn't even discount Don't Look Up), but I am predicting Dune to eke out the victory. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Could Win - Dune or Cruella

Should Win - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Commentary - Dune is the science fiction contender, which often prevails, and Cruella has the high fashion angle, which is popular for voters. But this category often lines up with a biopic Best Actor/Actress winner. Think The Iron Lady and Darkest Hour. Jessica Chastain has rocketed to the top of the Best Actress race, and the makeup work to recreate the iconic Tammy Faye look was remarkable. It also won the BAFTA. I think it wins here in a tough race. 

Best Production Design

Will Win - Dune

Could Win - Nightmare Alley or West Side Story

Should Win - West Side Story

Commentary - The more traditional set designs of Nightmare Alley and West Side Story were fantastic, and if there is an upset here with one of those films, it would not surprise me. They are both bold, vibrant, and historical, which is often popular here. But, Dune won BAFTA, won its ADG category, and we have seen the connection between cinematography, visual effects, and production design. But watch out. This is a race where spoilers could easily upset, and it is not as locked in as people are predicting. 

Best Visual Effects

Will Win - Dune

Could Win - Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Should Win - Dune

Commentary - Duh.