The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win - Sian Heder "CODA"

Could Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog" or Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"

Should Win - Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe "Drive My Car"

Commentary - I really thought that there would be a BAFTA/WGA split, because The Power of the Dog was not eligible. But then CODA won both, and that was a huge victory at BAFTA. Plus it looks like CODA could end up winning Best Picture. If it wins here, it could be a sign of how the night will unfold. 

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win - Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Could Win - Adam McKay and David Sirota "Don't Look Up" or Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Should Win - Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Commentary - A lot of folks are still banking on Kenneth Branagh, my pick for a long time. But if he cannot win over his home crowd at BAFTA, I don't know if he can pull it off with the American Academy. Don't Look Up has a lot of support, and it won the WGA, a surprise for a lot of people. But BAFTA, the big broad consensus vote went for Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza. This is a close race to watch, but I think PTA finally wins his Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win - Encanto

Could Win - The Mitchells vs. The Machines or Flee

Should Win - The Mitchells vs. The Machines or Flee

Commentary - Encanto missed at the Annie Awards, which was interesting. But it has won almost every other major precursor that matters. I think it is a lock. 

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win - Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Could Win - Flee

Should Win - Flee or Summer of Soul

Commentary - A tough vote, with two amazing films nominated. But Summer of Soul has won the most major precursors, even winning over BAFTA voters. I think it pulls it out in a tighter than expected race. 

Best International Feature

Will Win - Drive My Car

Could Win - The Worst Person in the World

Should Win - Drive My Car

Commentary - The only nominee that is also a Best Picture nominee? Drive My Car. Should win in a walk.