The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Director

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Other Contenders - tick, tick...boom!, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Being the Ricardos, Don't Look Up, Parallel Mothers, Flee, Spencer, House of Gucci, Passing, House of Gucci

Commentary - I feel like eight contenders are solidifying, and in the previous years, that is probably where the Academy would cut it off. But we are moving back to ten nominees, so this race has a lot of wild cards. Belfast, King Richard, and CODA are the feel-good favorites. Dune, The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and The Tragedy of Macbeth feel like the directorial, visual films, and West Side Story is doing incredibly well. Those last two slots are interesting. Right now I have The Lost Daughter. It has done well and has Netflix behind it. Drive My Car is the film that is just climbing up the critical charts. Foreign films have done better in recent years due to membership expansion. Will this one be as successful as Parasite and Roma? We'll have to see how the guilds respond. I want to put tick, tick...boom! in this race, but when I look through the categories, I don't have it popping up a lot. We all know that you have to have good support throughout the branches to stay in the running. That's why I keep thinking that Don't Look Up and Nightmare Alley will rebound. I could see a lot of the Academy's branches going for it in a big way. Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, and Spencer will do well in other categories, so they cannot be ignored. Flee and Parallel Mothers should be in the running, as should Passing. Finally, the big blockbusters No Time to Die and Spider-Ma: No Way Home are both planning a huge Oscar push to prove blockbusters are back. We'll see if the Academy responds. 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog" 

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi "Drive My Car" 

Steven Spielberg "West Side Story"

Denis Villeneuve "Dune"

Other Contenders - Kenneth Branagh "Belfast", Adam McKay "Don't Look Up", Reinaldo Marcus Green "King Richard", Sian Heder "CODA", Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley", Lin-Manuel Miranda "tick, tick...boom!", Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter", Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos", Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers", Asghar Farhadi "A Hero"

Commentary - I know I'm crazy to move Kenneth Branagh out of the top five, and if he rebounds in terms of nominations, I will be happy to move him back in. But I have seen this scenario play out so many times. The feel-good favorite ends up being eliminated by the directors branch for a more visionary or for a foreign film director. I have just replaced him with Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, who is clearly on the rise for Drive My Car. The other four feel like stronger contenders across the board, and the type of films that the voters will love: Villenueve, Spielberg, Campion, and PTA. Adam McKay cannot be discounted, with two nominations in recent years. Green could ride King Richard's success, as could Sian Heder. Del Toro is a previous winner, Miranda brings joy, Coen is a previous winner, Gyllenhall knocks it out of the park on her first try, Sorkin is reeling from last year's snub, and Almodovar and Farhadi could find love in this branch.