The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Actor and Actress

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"

Peter Dinklage "Cyrano"

Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!"

Will Smith "King Richard"

Denzel Washington "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Other Contenders - Nicholas Cage "Pig", Leonardo DiCaprio "Don't Look Up", Clifton Collins Jr. "Jockey", Cooper Hoffman "Licorice Pizza", Anthony Ramos "In the Heights", Javier Bardem "Being the Ricardos", Bradley Cooper "Nightmare Alley", Jude Hill "Belfast", Simon Rex "Red Rocket"

Commentary - This race feels like it has narrowed down to six, maybe DiCaprio is SAG goes for him as the seventh. My sixth slot right now is Nicholas Cage, who has done surprisingly well for Pig. It would be a fantastic nomination, but I'm not sure Oscar voters have seen the film, and he is up against some stiff competition. The most vulnerable is Peter Dinklage, mostly because Cyrano is not getting a lot of love outside of his performance. Cage could take his slot, especially if SAG goes for him. The other four slots feel solid: Smith, Washington, Cumberbatch, and Garfield. Collins, Hoffman, and Rex are hoping some indie spirit hits Oscar voters. Bardem and Cooper are Oscar favorites, Ramos is fantastic, and Jude Hill could be brought in if the Belfast love is strong. 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"

Lady Gaga "House of Gucci"

Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricardos"

Kristen Stewart "Spencer"

Other Contenders - Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza", Rachel Zegler "West Side Story", Penelope Cruz "Parallel Mothers", Jennifer Lawrence "Don't Look Up", Frances McDormand "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Emilia Jones "CODA", Tessa Thompson "Passing", Jennifer Hudson "Respect"

Commentary - This race is confusing me, and making me second-guess myself. I have reverted back to old favorites over the two newcomers, because I think SAG may revert back as well. That leaves Rachel Zegler and Alana Haim on the outside looking in, despite both being critical favorites. Instead, I popped back in Jessica Chastain (who has done well on the circuit so far, despite the film's muted response), and Nicole Kidman (again, has done well despite the muted response). These two are both previous Oscar winners/nominees, are playing real people (which actors love), and again, I think they will come out on top with SAG voters, the most important precursor for the acting awards. Stewart, Colman, and Gaga feel like, as a of now, really strong. Beyond those seven contenders, never discount previous winners McDormand, Cruz, Lawrence and Hudson. Also, watch out for Tessa Thompson, who has been winning a lot of critical prizes, and her co-star Ruth Negga is also rising. Passing could end up being a bigger contender than previous thought.