The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen "The Trial of the Chicago 7" 

Chadwick Boseman "Da 5 Bloods"

Daniel Kaluuya "Judas and the Black Messiah" 

Leslie Odom Jr. "One Night in Miami"

Paul Raci "Sound of Metal" 

Other Contenders - Alan Kim "Minari", Jared Leto "The Little Things", Glynn Turman "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom", and Clarke Peters "Da 5 Bloods"

Commentary - Daniel Kaluuya, after winning the Globe and Critics Choice is the clear front runner for the Oscar. Leslie Odom Jr. is also still easily hanging on for the number two slot, and could still surprise at SAG. Sacha Baron Cohen also feels like a lock for his great performance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 and as a cumulative nod for Borat. After that, I think it is a toss up. I have had Chadwick Boseman here for Da 5 Bloods for a while, and I still think he can get in, despite the fact that Da 5 Bloods continues to slip as the season goes on. Finally, I cannot include Jared Leto. Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? There's a good chance. A SAG + Golden Globe nod should not be ignored. But I think that as the season goes on that Paul Raci, who was the critical favorite, will surprise. He is so good in the film, has a lot of support, and feels like one of those nominees that surprises at the finish line. Also watch out for Alan Kim, who got a BAFTA Nod, and won the Younger Actor/Actress at the Critics Choice right in the thick of voting. Clarke Peters also got a BAFTA nod. Even with the juried system, it makes me wonder if he is stronger than we think. Finally, if Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is really strong, you could see Glynn Turman's name pop up. 

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm"

Olivia Colman "The Father" 

Glenn Close "Hillbilly Elegy"

Jodie Foster "The Mauritanian" 

Yuh-Jung Youn "Minari"

Other Contenders - Helena Zengel "News of the World", Amanda Seyfried "Mank", Dominique Fishback "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Commentary - So this is Maria Bakalova's to lose. She is the breakout star of year, won the Critics Choice, and I think she will sweep the SAG and BAFTA, and then Oscar. Olivia Colman's snub at BAFTA was odd, considering how much British talent they rewarded, but the juried voting is skewing things his year. If she misses out at the Oscars, I will be floored. Yuh-Jung Youn is the scene-stealer of Minari. Has the SAG nod (and get in at BAFTA), and could be the upset brewing. She would deserve it, because she is awesome in a film that has quickly become a Best Picture contender. Glenn Close got in at SAG and the Globe, and the Critics Choice. I think is is about Glenn Close, because it cannot be about the film. She is vulnerable, as that film is not a huge contender across the board. Finally, after surprisingly winning the Globe, I am backing Jodie Foster. But she and Close have some stiff competition. Helena Zengel got the last SAG slot over Foster. Amanda Seyfried got in at the Globes and Critics Choice, and at one point was the front runner in this category. Finally, Dominique Fishback's nod at BAFTA could be just the juried system. Or it could be a contender peaking at the right time. We will know Monday morning.