The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture

The Father

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

Minari 

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Contenders - Judas and the Black Messiah, The Mauritanian, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Commentary - I feel confident about 7 of the nine slots. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all feel pretty solid. But that last slot, or last two slots, are where it gets tricky. Judas and the Black Messiah is coming in strong, but I'm not sure about its strength down ballot except Daniel Kaluuya. The Mauritanian got in at BAFTA in a non-juried award for Best Film. But will it play as well over here? I'm not sure. Soul could be the Animated representative, Da 5 Bloods did get a SAG Ensemble nod, News of the World is popular among the craft branches, and Borat has a PGA and WGA nod in its back pocket. Instead, I am going with The Father, a British favorite I think will cross over instead of The Mauritanian, and Sound of Metal, an indie that keeps popping up across the board. I think they are the stronger of the outlier contenders. 

Best Director

David Fincher "Mank"

Lee Isaac Chung "Minari"

Chloe Zhao "Nomadland"

Emerald Fennell "Promising Young Woman" 

Aaron Sorkin "The Trial of the Chicago 7" 

Other Contenders - Regina King "One Night in Miami", Thomas Vinterberg "Another Round", Florian Zeller "The Father", Spike Lee "Da 5 Bloods", Paul Greengrass "News of the World", Darius Marder "Sound of Metal", Shaka King "Judas and the Black Messiah"

Commentary - I know the DGA five usually lose a member at the Oscars, but I'm not just sure which contender replaces one of the five, and which of the five loses out. There is Regina King, whose inclusion would be history-making and well-received. There are legends like Spike Lee and Paul Greengrass, newcomers like Florian Zeller, Darius Marder, and Shaka King, and then there is Thomas Vinterberg, who could easily be this year's foreign director who breaks through. With so much unknown, I am sticking with the known.