Will Win - Guillermo Del Toro "The Shape of Water"
Could Win - Christopher Nolan "Dunkirk"
Should Win - Nolan
Commentary - Best Pictures is such a mess, I still am not sure, and I have to make my final choice tomorrow. But this one seems sewn up. This is the year of Gravity, where Best Picture was a race to the finish, but everyone knew Cuaron was going to win. Guillermo Del Toro has this one in the bag. I would love to see Nolan make a play here, but his chance to gain ground has long passed. This is Guillermo's year. He has won all the major precursors, is beloved in this industry, and is a brilliant director. He has worked hard to earn this Oscar, and he will get his moment to shine come Sunday night.