Will Win - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win - Get Out or The Shape of Water
Should Win - Lady Bird
Commentary - After all this craziness, I have narrowed this down to three films: Get Out, Three Billboards, and The Shape of Water. Get Out was my pick for the last two weeks or so. It just seemed to have the momentum after the WGA like Moonlight did last year. Can it still win? Oh definitely. Will it win? I just think that four nominations is too low, and it is a film that too many in the Academy seem to not understand. The Shape of Water is the conventional choice. It won the PGA and DGA. It is missing the SAG, but actors in the Academy clearly like it. Yet, when I think about it winning, it seems off. The SAG stat has stumped me the last two years. The Shape of Water has a lot of support, but some its snubs and losses are head-scratching, and it makes me think that while there is a lot of respect for the film, a Best Picture win is not in the cards. Three Billboards seemed too divisive, too much for Academy voters. And yet, it continues to over-perform everywhere, it seems to have a passionate following, and it continues to defy the odds. I think that the reason Three Billboards will win, is that despite the fact that so many online and in the snob circles have tried to pin it down as racist or derogatory, every other group has recognized that it represents America, it all of its ugly glory. Right now people are angry, they want to see women rise to the top in the face of adversity, and they are coming to realize the ugly truth that this country is more divided than it has been in over a century. This divisiveness and anger is screamed at you throughout Three Billboards. It is an unconventional nominee and it would be an extremely unconventional winner. But in this race that has been anything but ordinary, it seems like a fitting end for this quirky, angry, and yet surprisingly beautiful film to finish the race on top.