Will Win - Tony Hale "Veep"
Could Win - Louie Anderson "Baskets", Tituss Burgess "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt", or Matt Walsh "Veep"
Should Win - Tituss Burgess "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Commentary - If episodes were still important, Louie Anderson would probably win. But Baskets was awful other than him, and got no other attention, and most importantly, episodes are not as important as they used to be. Tituss Burgess should easily win this award for yet another great season, but Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt seems to have slipped a bit in season 2 in terms of nominations (not at all in terms of quality). First-time nominee Matt Walsh could be swept up in the Veep love, which seems to have gotten stronger from last season. But I think this is Tony Hale's to lose. He was won two of these already for this character, had another great season, and the Emmys tend to reward multiple times before they give up on you.