Will Win - Adam Driver "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
Could Win - Ed Skrein "Deadpool"
Should Win - Hugh Keays-Byrne "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Commentary - Deadpool concerns me throughout these categories, because as voting is going on, it is racking up box office dollars. Star Wars is still Star Wars, and its fan base is undeniable, which is why I think Driver wins. But if Skrein pulled off an upset I would not be shocked. I also would not discount James Spader. Avengers is popular with this crowd. On a personal note, I hope Mad Max pulls the same feat it did at the Oscars, starting with Hugh Keays-Byrne.
Best True Story
Will Win - Straight Outta Compton
Could Win - The Revenant
Should Win - Steve Jobs or The Big Short
Commentary - The Revenant was an Oscar favorite, but I think that Straight Outta Compton is a slam-dunk here. It is big, bold, brash, and despite its 90's nostalgia, I think reached a far wider and younger audience than The Revenant. For the record, a Steve Jobs or Big Short upset would make this blogger very happy.
Best Ensemble Cast
Will Win - Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win - Pitch Perfect 2 or Furious 7
Should Win - Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Commentary - I can never get these things right, and the large Pitch Perfect 2 cast or the sentimentality of Furious 7 could win. Or Star Wars could sweep. I'll bet on the latter.