Sunday, November 1, 2015

The Oscar Narrative: First Golden Globe Predictions - Best Picture - Comedy/Musical

First Golden Globe Predictions
The Big Short
The Martian

Other Contenders - Grandma, Sisters, The Lady in the Van, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Burnt, Our Brand is Crisis, Pitch Perfect 2, The Intern, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Cinderella, Ricki and the Flash, Rock the Kasbah, Ant-Man, Irrational Man, Diary of a Teenage Girl, While We're Young, Mistress America, Dope, Tangerine, I'll See You In My Dreams, Welcome to Me, Danny Collins, Learning to Drive, Infinitely Polar Bear, Hot Pursuit, The Wedding Ringer, Sleeping With Other People, The DUFF, Focus, The Final Girls, Get Hard, Man Up, Aloha, Entourage, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Pixels, Vacation, The Man from U.N.C.L.E., American Ultra, Jem and the Holograms, Scouts Guide to the Apocalypse, The Night Before, Love the Coopers, Daddy's Home

Commentary - So this year is not the best for comedies, in terms of depth. This compared to recent years where films like Birdman, The Wolf of Wall Street, Nebraska, Her, etc., all Best Picture contenders battled it out. There are a few in the mix. The Martian is a huge Oscar contender, and could launch a full-on Best Picture campaign with a win here at the Globes. The other real contender is The Big Short. Right now it is a question mark, but there is a lot of positive buzz about it heading into the fall, and could be a last-minute surprise. The other three (actually all of the other contenders, should probably just enjoy the Globes love). Trainwreck and Spy are the two big comedy hits of the summer. Sometimes they go for films like this, sometimes they don't. With fewer contenders in the running, and with the star power behind each (Amy Schumer, Bill Hader, Melissa McCarthy, etc.), they both feel like solid contenders. The last slot, for now, goes to Trumbo, a film about a Hollywood screenwriter with Bryan Cranston and Helen Mirren, which is getting decent reviews out of the fall fests. Right behind it are films like Grandma (is it just about Tomlin?), The Lady in the Van (Smith?), The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (the first one was nominated, but was better received), The Intern (mixed reviews, but they like Nancy Meyers), Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (too indie for Globe voters?), and Cinderella (wild card). There are the big guns like Ant-Man and Pitch Perfect 2, as well as the well-reviewed indies (which don't do as well at the more star-powered driven Globes), like Diary of a Teenage Girl, Irrational Man, Welcome to Me, I'll See You in My Dreams, Dope, Infinitely Polar Bear, Mistress America, Danny Collins, Learning to Drive, Tangerine, and American Ultra. Then there are those star-powered vehicles with terrible reviews that could pull a "The Tourist" and still get in like Aloha, Ricki and the Flash (really more mixed reviews, and actually not a bad pick), Rock the Kasbah, Brunt, Our Brand is Crisis, and Hot Pursuit.

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