Monday, July 19, 2010

Oscar Predictions: July Edition

Best Picture
127 Hours
Another Year
The Fighter
Love and Other Drugs
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
The Tree of Life
The Way Back

Commentary: We already know that The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, and Inception have Oscar potential, the question is: can they hold on through the Oscar season? If The Hurt Locker could with no real starpower or box office prowless, then these three can. Another Year is gettting rave reviews out of Cannes, but needs to be seen by American audiences. The rest are big baity projects, such as Danny Boyle's "127 Hours", Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life", Peter Weir's "The Way Back", David O Russel's "The Fighter", and the recently seen trailer David Fincher's "The Social Network" puts it on the map. Finally I went with Love and Other Drugs which includes Ed Zwick, Anne Hathaway, and Jake Gyllenhaal, and could be a winner.

Best Director
Danny Boyle "127 Hours"
Mike Leigh "Another Year"
Christopher Nolan "Inception"
David Fincher "The Social Network"
Peter Weir "The Way Back"

Commentary: Peter Weir gets nominated for almost everything, and Mike Leigh even got in for Vera Drake, so they are probably in for their respective projects. Christopher Nolan was robbed two years ago for The Dark Knight, and since Inception is really a director's paradise, he could finally get some overdue credit. Danny Boyle has already charmed the Academy once, so who says he can't do it again? Finally, after seeing the trailer for The Social Network, I think both Fincher, and his writer the incredible Aaron Sorkin are now major contenders.

Best Actor
Johnny Depp "The Rum Diary"
Robert Duvall "Get Low"
Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
Ryan Gosling "Blue Valentine"
Jake Gyllenhaal "Love and Other Drugs"

Commentary: All of these guys are former Oscar nominees, but none of them have won. Johnny Depp is probably the most overdue, and The Rum Diary could be his ticket in for at least a fourth nomination. Colin Firth was devastatingly brilliant in A Single Man, and the more classic King's Speech could be his vehicle to show his classicly trained prowless. Marky Mark is back in the race, although I am weary of The Fighter, as if could be a bomb, and Whalberg isn't exactly the best actor in the world, so I went with the legend Robert Duvall in his place. Finally, I went with two younger stars, Ryan Gosling, who we already know is good, and Jake Gyllenhaal for his baity role in Love and Other Drugs.

Best Actress
Annette Benning "The Kids Are All Right"
Anne Hathaway "Love and Other Drugs"
Jennifer Lawrence "Winter's Bone"
Leslie Manville "Another Year"
Michelle Williams "Blue Valentine"

Commentary: Annette Benning is finally the frontrunner to win, and while Hilary Swank could be up again, I think that Conviction will bomb. So instead I am going with two fresher faces who have had early raves: Jennifer Lawrence and Leslie Manville, Manville snagging an Imelda Stauton-esque nod. In the final two spots, I went with the Best Actress counterparts to Love and Other Drugs and Blue Valentine, Michelle Williams and Anne Hathaway, both very talented, and both previous nominees.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale "The Fighter"
Andrew Garfield "The Social Network"
Ed Harris "The Way Back"
Bill Murray "Get Low"
Mark Ruffalo "The Kids Are All Right"

Commentary: Christian Bale is way overdue, and while I am uncertain about The Fighter, I put him in. Ed Harris and Bill Murray are WAY overdue for an Oscar, and both have baity roles in high-profile projects. while Benning is stealing most of the buzz, a lot of people are talking about Mark Ruffalo's role in The Kids Are All Right, and he too is overdue. Finally, I'm going out on a limb, and judging a movie by its trailer, picking Andrew Garfield as the newcomer to the gang.

Best Supporting Actress
Helen Bonham Carter "The King's Speech"
Rebecca Hall "The Town"
Kiera Knightly "Never Let Me Go"
Julianne Moore "The Kids Are All Right"
Dianne Wiest "Rabbit Hole"

Commentary: Julianne Moore is still a mystery in terms of category placement, but if they put her here, she has a great shot of getting nominated. In Lead Actress, she'll be outshined by her co-star. Rebecca Hall has been on the radar for a few years now, and this role has an Amy Ryan type feel, plus her earlier role in Please Give was understated but well done. Kiera Knightly nabbed a nod for Pride & Prejudice, and her role in Never Let Me Go looks baity. Dianne Wiest could be back in the game with Rabbit Hole, but right now I am riding on name recognition. Finally, I am going with Helen Bonham Carter, who is constantly great, and this role plus her Harry Potter role could be enough for her to get another nomination, plus it doesn't hurt to play a real life person.

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