The Oscar Narrative: First 2024 Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

First 2024 Nomination Predictions

Barbie

The Bikeriders

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Other Contenders - Saltburn, Anatomy of a Fall, Origin, May December, Rustin, Air, The Boy and the Heron, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Ferrari, Napoleon, Asteroid City, All of Us Strangers, Dumb Money, Freud's Last Session, The Killer, The Boys in the Boat, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, BlackBerry, The Iron Claw, Priscilla, Nyad, The Burial, You Hurt My Feelings, Joy Ride, John Wick: Chapter 4, Bottoms, The Marvels, Bob Marley: One Love, Next Goal Wins, Theater Camp, Wonka, The Little Mermaid

Commentary - Barbie and Oppenheimer have all the components that a Best Picture needs, rave reviews, smashing box office, and beloved by fans. Killers of the Flower Moon premiered at Cannes to rave reviews, and the studio thinks it could also be a huge box office hit. Past Lives is the big contender from the first half that critics swooned over. The Bikeriders, The Zone of Interest, and Poor Things have all landed at the festivals with raves. Maestro got good reviews, not necessarily raves, but I think it will play well with the Academy. Two big question marks The Holdovers and The Color Purple, I am adding in until proven otherwise. They both feel like if they land, they will do well with voters. Beyond those ten, you have Priscilla, which recently played well to Venice, the divisive Saltburn (remember passion helps in the nomination stage, so don't discount it), Palme D'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall, Ava DuVernay's Origin, Todd Haynes May December, Michael Mann's Ferrari, Andrew Haigh's All of Us Strangers, Ridley Scott's Napoleon, David Fincher's The Killer, George C. Wolfe's Rustin, Ben Affleck's Air, Sean Durkin's The Iron Claw, and George Clooney's The Boys in the Boat. Animated contenders Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron could make a splash. Through in comedies, biopics, and blockbusters like Asteroid City, Dumb Money, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, The Marvels, Bottoms, John Wick: Chapter 4, Bob Marley: One Love, Nyad, Theater Camp, Wonka, The Little Mermaid, Next Goal Wins, and Joy Ride and you have a great race to watch.