The Oscar Narrative: First 2024 Nomination Predictions - Best Director

First 2024 Nomination Predictions

Greta Gerwig "Barbie"

Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer" 

Martin Scorsese "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Yorgos Lanthimos "Poor Things"

Jonathan Glazer "The Zone of Interest"

Other Contenders - Bradley Cooper "Maestro", Greta Lee "Past Lives", Alexander Payne "The Holdovers", George C. Wolfe "Rustin", Blitz Bazawule "The Color Purple", Michael Mann "Ferrari", Jeff Nichols "The Bikeriders", Emerald Fennell "Saltburn", Todd Haynes "May December", Ben Affleck "Air", David Fincher "The Killer", Craig Gillespie "Dumb Money", Ridley Scott "Napoleon", Sofia Coppola "Priscilla", Andrew Haigh "All of Us Strangers", Sean Durkin "The Iron Claw", Taika Waititi "Next Goal Wins", Justine Triet "Anatomy of a Fall", Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse", Hayao Miyazaki "The Boy and the Heron", Ava DuVernay "Origin", Wes Anderson "Asteroid City"

Commentary - Can voters ignore Barbie? They might try, but my guess is that Greta Gerwig rides the creativity and the popularity of this film phenomenon to Oscar glory. I also expect Christopher Nolan, the other half of Barbenheimer to make the cut as well for Oppenheimer. Martin Scorsese rarely missed, especially when he gets the kind of reviews he got for Killers of the Flower Moon. The Zone of Interest has almost rave attention. I'm not sure how it will play across the Academy, but I expect the Directors branch to really respect it, and give Jonathan Glazer some love. Finally, after premiering it looks like Yorgos Lanthimos may return to the race for Poor Things. Beyond those five though are a lot of folks who could ride some buzz including Bradley Cooper for Maestro, which didn't have raves, but I think will play well with the Academy. Greta Lee's debut Past Lives is getting a lot of attention as is Alexander Payne's The Holdovers. Rustin is getting a lot of attention, so don't forget George C. Wolfe, and The Color Purple, if it stays in 2023, could be a big holiday hit. Throw in previous nominees and winners like Michael Mann, Emerald Fennell, David Fincher, Ridley Scott, Sofia Coppola, Taika Waititi, and Wes Anderson. Will this be the year that previous nominees in other categories finally get a directors nod, like Ben Affleck, Ava DuVernay, Todd Haynes, Hayao Miyazaki, and Kemp Powers breakthrough? Finally, can veterans like Craig Gillespie, Sean Durkin, and Jeff Nichols breakthrough? What about the wildcard Justine Triet? A lot of questions heading into the fall season.