The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Jamie Dornan "Belfast"

Ciaran Hinds "Belfast"

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Jared Leto "House of Gucci"

Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog

Other Contenders - Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", J.K. Simmons "Being the Ricardos", Bradley Cooper "Licorice Pizza", Richard Jenkins "The Humans", Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Mike Faist "West Side Story", Jason Isaacs "Mass", Reed Birney "Mass", Robin de Jesus "tick, tick...boom!", Jon Bernthal "King Richard"

Commentary - Unless SAG completely upends our expectations, the pre-guild five feel pretty comfortable, at least four of them do. The two Belfast guys will continue to do well as that film is going to be a boon with voters. Troy Kotsur is steadily getting notices, and I think CODA is stronger than the critical awards make it out to be. Finally, the front runner, for now, is Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog. While he could steamroll right to the Oscar, I could see the Academy go with a more affecting and emotional performance, say Kotsur or Hinds. The last slot feels like Jared Leto's. Apparently, the SAG screenings for House of Gucci have been positive, particularly for Lady Gaga and Jared Leto, which may help them overcome the film's mixed reactions. Of course, he got into SAG last year for The Little Things, but missed the Oscar. House of Gucci is definitely a stronger film overall. But I think we are still in for some surprises in this category. Ben Affleck is getting enough notices for The Tender Bar that he could surprise, especially at SAG. J.K. Simmons got in at Critics Choice, and again, SAG Voters seem to be higher on Being the Ricardos than critics. Bradley Cooper is just wild enough and scene-stealing enough to overcome his small screentime. Richard Jenkins holds on, but needs notice soon. Jesse Plemmons, Mike Faist, Jason Issacs, Reed Birney, Robin de Jesus, and Jon Bernthal are also still in the race.

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe "Belfast"

Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"

Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard"

Rita Moreno "West Side Story"

Other Contenders - Ann Dowd "Mass", Ruth Negga "Passing", Judi Dench "Belfast", Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Meryl Streep "Don't Look Up", Jessie Buckley "The Lost Daughter", Martha Plimpton "Mass"

Commentary - This race feels like seven actresses for five slots. Then it feels like there is a drop off. Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, and Ellis seem to be hitting all the marks, and I think SAG voters will nominate them as well. The last slot is the three-way race. I am currently sticking with Rita Moreno. West Side Story has played well with crtics, she is an Oscar-winning legend returning to the remake of the film that won her an Oscar. She would also become the oldest Oscar nominee. That is a hell of a campaign story. But watch out for SAG to come through for Ruth Negga or Ann Dowd. They are the kind of actors that actors love, and their roles are two of the best of the year. Beyond that it feels like rest are seat-fillers. Judi Dench could ride the Belfast love, she is a solid number 7. But after that it's a crap shoot. I would love to see Jessie Buckley or Martha Plimpton get some love, and you can never discount legends like Meryl Streep and Cate Blanchett. But unless SAG comes through, I think they will be on the outside looking in.