Thursday, December 28, 2017

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nominations Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
Mary J. Blige "Mudbound"
Hong Chau "Downsizing"
Holly Hunter "The Big Sick"
Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf "Lady Bird"

Other Contenders - Octavia Spencer "The Shape of Water", Lesley Manville "Phantom Thread", Tiffany Haddish "Girls Trip", Kristin Scott Thomas "Darkest Hour", Carrie Fisher "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"

Commentary - There are four major precursors I look at for the acting awards, and they usually get it right come Oscar nomination morning. With the exception of the BAFTA's, which are coming soon, we have the other three, the BFCA's, the Golden Globes, and most importantly, SAG. Of these three, four contenders have managed nominations from all three: Laurie Metcalf, Allison Janney, Mary J. Blige, and Hong Chau. Metcalf and Janney are the two fighting for the win, so their inclusions are no surprise, and on a personal note, well-deserved. Mary J. Blige was an early contender, and has benefited from Mudbound's strong-showing, something that was not a guarantee consider its streaming background. Finally, in a surprise Hong Chau has emerged from the mixed reaction to Downsizing, thanks to an star-making turn, and has become the surprise Oscar contender of the year. That last slot has two major contenders fighting, both Oscar-winning favorites. I really though that Octavia Spencer had this nomination locked up. But when Holly Hunter beat her out at SAG, I switched to her, because SAG should have been an easy pit stop in this race. I don't know how this final slot will shake out, but can I say how hopeful I am for an upset by Tiffany Haddish or the late great Carrie Fisher.

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