Wednesday, December 27, 2017

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani "The Big Sick"
Jordan Peele "Get Out"
Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird"
Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor "The Shape of Water"
Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Other Contenders - Josh Singer and Liz Hannah "The Post", Paul Thomas Anderson "Phantom Thread", Anthony McCarten "Darkest Hour", Steven Rogers "I, Tonya", Christopher Nolan "Dunkirk", Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina, Lee Unkrich, and Jason Katz "Coco", Taylor Sheridan "Wind River"

Commentary - This is a race with too many contenders, and not enough slots. I think Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards, the top three contenders at this point for Best Picture, are locked and loaded. But those other two slots are tricky. The Shape of Water hit it out of of the park with critics, but its first test with the guilds, SAG, ended with only two nominations, and it missed out on that coveted Ensemble nod. I still think it gets in here. Del Toro is a previous screenplay nominee, and I think writers will embrace the story. The other slot, right now, goes to the well-deserved The Big Sick, a screenplay I think writers will love. But that means that The Post is on the outside (previous winner Josh Singer, but Spielberg scripts are hit and miss as of late), and Paul Thomas Anderson (one I think we are really underestimating). I also think Darkest Hour, Coco, and I, To. nya should not be forgotten. The WGA Awards will hopefully sort some of this out, as will BAFTA, but even then, this is a quirky branch that has thrown their fair share of curveballs in this Oscar race in the past, with out of the box choices. We will have to wait and see how this very competitive race shakes out...

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