Post-Festival Predictions
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjani "The Big Sick"
Anthony McCarten "Darkest Hour"
Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Phantom Thread"
Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Other Contenders - Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor "The Shape of Water", Christopher Nolan "Dunkirk", Mark Boal "Detroit", Simon Beaufoy "Battle of the Sexes", Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor "Downsizing", Liz Hannah and Josh Singer "The Post", Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina and Lee Unkrich "Coco", Simon Baker and Chris Bergoch "The Florida Project", Jordan Peele "Get Out", Taylor Sheridan "Wind River", Darren Aronofsky "mother!", Jenny Bicks, Michael Ardnt, and Bill Condon "The Greatest Showman", Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymius "The Killing of the Sacred Deer", Joon-ho Bong and Jon Ronson "Okja", Edgar Wright "Baby Driver", Woody Allen "Wonder Wheel", Michael Haneke "Happy End", Steven Soderbergh "Logan Lucky"
Commentary - This is a really tough race, as quality contenders keep piling up. By the way, this is good news that this race is so tough. In the era of sequels, prequels, and unnecessary remakes, its nice to know there are still a few great original ideas left in Hollywood. So let's start with my current five. The Big Sick is just the kind of comedy that writers enjoy, and the fact that its based on the true story of its writers adds an extra layer of appeal. Out of the fall film festivals, three contenders have emerged in many categories: Darkest Hour, Three Billboard Outside Ebbing Missouri, and Lady Bird. These three have wowed critics, and all could end up with Best Picture nominations, or at least many across the categories. Plus, Oscar winner Martin McDonagh, Oscar nominee Anthony McCarten, and indie superstar Greta Gerwig, are all names that writers will recognize as awards worthy. Finally, Paul Thomas Anderson gets a writing nomination almost every film he releases, and Phantom Thread, with Daniel Day-Lewis at its lead, feels like it has Oscar written all over it. I know what your thinking: what about The Shape of Water? Genre pieces have trouble getting into non-technical categories, and even those that love the film think that some of its storylines are not the best. Del Toro has been nominated here before for genre work, and he is getting raves for his latest. But for now, I'll take my chances on leaving him out. I am also, begrudingly leaving out the perennial nominees of Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor. Downsizing still has a lot of potential, but its mixed reaction from the film festivals means it has an uphill climb. Battle of the Sexes is a crowd pleaser, that, as it has opened around the country, is getting rave reviews, and Simon Beaufoy is an Oscar winner. But this feels like a film that writers will not find as worthy as other branches. Steven Spielberg's latest is in the running, but screenplay doesn't always tag along. Detroit was a box-office dud, but its visceral and Mark Boal is an Oscar winner, so don't count him out. Coco could join other past Pixar favorites, The Florida Project is set to be an indie contender, Wind River features an Oscar-nominated screenwriter, The Greatest Showman could be more than its title, mother! could inspire writers who respect Aronofsky, and never count out previous nominees/winners Woody Allen, Michale Haneke, Steve Soderbergh, and the team of Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymius Filippou. Finally, Get Out is going to get a well-deserved Oscar push, and Jordan Peele is definitely one to watch for.
Saturday, September 30, 2017
Monday, September 25, 2017
The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions - Best Supporting Actor
Post-Festival Predictions
Armie Hammer "Call Me By Your Name"
Ben Mendelsohn "Darkest Hour"
Jason Mitchell "Mudbound"
Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Michael Stuhlbarg "Call Me By Your Name"
Other Contenders - Kevin Spacey "All the Money in the World", Mark Rylance "Dunkirk", Tom Hardy "Dunkirk", William Dafoe "The Florida Project", Harrison Ford "Blade Runner 2049", Garrett Hedlund "Mudbound", Patrick Stewart "Logan", Woody Harrelson "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", Ray Romano "The Big Sick", Idris Elba "Molly's Game", John Hurt "Darkest Hour", Sterling K. Brown "Marshall", Josh Gad "Marshall", Christoph Waltz "Downsizing", LilRey Howery "Get Out", Tracey Letts "Ladybird", Richard Jenkins "The Shape of Water", Will Poulter "Detroit", Michael Shannon "The Shape of Water", Mark Hamill "Star Wars: The Last Jedi", Laurence Fishburne "Last Flag Flying", Bob Odenkirk "The Post", Lucas Hedges "Lady Bird", Timothee Chamalet "Lady Bird", John Boyega "Detroit", John Boyega "Star Wars: The Last Ledi", Chris Pine "Wonder Woman"
Commentary - So I initially thought that they would campaign Armie Hammer for co-lead for Call Me By Your Name. But it looks like they are going to campaign him as co-supporting with Michael Stuhlbarg. Right now, I actually have them both making the cut. This film continues to garner support, the Moonlight win shows they are not afraid of gay storylines, and both are well-liked veteran actors with rave reviews. Now they could fall out as newer contenders emerge, but 9 months after it premiered at Sundance, both are still top of mind, which is good news after the onslaught of the fall fests. Jason Mitchell continues to hold on to his slot from Sundance as well. Mudbound has a lot of the potential with the potential with the Academy, but I will constantly reinforce that Netflix has to have the right strategy or it will get lost in the shuffle. Out of the fests, emerged Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which after its Toronto win has skyrocketed in people's Oscar predictions. Woody Harrelson is reliably great, but the raves have been saved for Sam Rockwell (and Frances McDormand). He is a veteran, has been excellent for years, and is way overdue for some awards recognition. Finally, after winning a surprise Emmy, and building a quality indie film cred over the last couple of years, Ben Mendelsohn's role as King George VI is earning raves out of the fests, and Darkest Hour is a huge Oscar contender. Beyond that, this category has a lot of question marks. Is Kevin Spacey just makeup or more in All in the Money in the World? Is Dunkirk going to inspire the acting branch, or just the tech ones? Is The Florida Project going to get enough attention for William Dafoe? Will genre contenders like Patrick Stewart, Harrison Ford, Mark Hammil, LilRey Howrey, Michael Shannon, John Boyega or Chris Pine breakthrough? What about Tracey Letts, Lucas Hedges, and Timothee Chamalet from the well-liked Lady Bird? Or Garret Hedlund joining his co-star? Or the guys from Marshall, Detroit, Christoph Waltz, Laurence Fishburne, Ray Romano, or Bob Odenkirk? In a few months, all of these questions will be answered, but for now, this race is a toss up.
Armie Hammer "Call Me By Your Name"
Ben Mendelsohn "Darkest Hour"
Jason Mitchell "Mudbound"
Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Michael Stuhlbarg "Call Me By Your Name"
Other Contenders - Kevin Spacey "All the Money in the World", Mark Rylance "Dunkirk", Tom Hardy "Dunkirk", William Dafoe "The Florida Project", Harrison Ford "Blade Runner 2049", Garrett Hedlund "Mudbound", Patrick Stewart "Logan", Woody Harrelson "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", Ray Romano "The Big Sick", Idris Elba "Molly's Game", John Hurt "Darkest Hour", Sterling K. Brown "Marshall", Josh Gad "Marshall", Christoph Waltz "Downsizing", LilRey Howery "Get Out", Tracey Letts "Ladybird", Richard Jenkins "The Shape of Water", Will Poulter "Detroit", Michael Shannon "The Shape of Water", Mark Hamill "Star Wars: The Last Jedi", Laurence Fishburne "Last Flag Flying", Bob Odenkirk "The Post", Lucas Hedges "Lady Bird", Timothee Chamalet "Lady Bird", John Boyega "Detroit", John Boyega "Star Wars: The Last Ledi", Chris Pine "Wonder Woman"
Commentary - So I initially thought that they would campaign Armie Hammer for co-lead for Call Me By Your Name. But it looks like they are going to campaign him as co-supporting with Michael Stuhlbarg. Right now, I actually have them both making the cut. This film continues to garner support, the Moonlight win shows they are not afraid of gay storylines, and both are well-liked veteran actors with rave reviews. Now they could fall out as newer contenders emerge, but 9 months after it premiered at Sundance, both are still top of mind, which is good news after the onslaught of the fall fests. Jason Mitchell continues to hold on to his slot from Sundance as well. Mudbound has a lot of the potential with the potential with the Academy, but I will constantly reinforce that Netflix has to have the right strategy or it will get lost in the shuffle. Out of the fests, emerged Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which after its Toronto win has skyrocketed in people's Oscar predictions. Woody Harrelson is reliably great, but the raves have been saved for Sam Rockwell (and Frances McDormand). He is a veteran, has been excellent for years, and is way overdue for some awards recognition. Finally, after winning a surprise Emmy, and building a quality indie film cred over the last couple of years, Ben Mendelsohn's role as King George VI is earning raves out of the fests, and Darkest Hour is a huge Oscar contender. Beyond that, this category has a lot of question marks. Is Kevin Spacey just makeup or more in All in the Money in the World? Is Dunkirk going to inspire the acting branch, or just the tech ones? Is The Florida Project going to get enough attention for William Dafoe? Will genre contenders like Patrick Stewart, Harrison Ford, Mark Hammil, LilRey Howrey, Michael Shannon, John Boyega or Chris Pine breakthrough? What about Tracey Letts, Lucas Hedges, and Timothee Chamalet from the well-liked Lady Bird? Or Garret Hedlund joining his co-star? Or the guys from Marshall, Detroit, Christoph Waltz, Laurence Fishburne, Ray Romano, or Bob Odenkirk? In a few months, all of these questions will be answered, but for now, this race is a toss up.
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
Post Festival Predictions
Mary J. Blige "Mudbound"
Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf "Lady Bird"
Kristen Scott Thomas "Darkest Hour"
Michelle Williams "The Greatest Showman"
Other Contenders - Carrie Fisher "Star Wars: The Last Jedi", Octavia Spencer "The Shape of Water", Melissa Leo "Novitiate", Hong Chau "Downsizing", Kristen Wiig "Downsizing", Holly Hunter "The Big Sick", Michelle Pfeiffer "mother!", Lesley Manville "Phantom Thread", Margot Robbie "Goodbye Christopher Robin", Catherine Keener "Get Out", Sarah Paulson "The Post", Carrie Coon "The Post", Julianne Moore "Wonderstruck", Lois Smith "Marjorie Prime", Kate Hudson "Marshall", Juno Temple "Wonder Wheel", Julia Roberts "Wonder", Nicole Kidman "The Killing of the Secret Deer", Chloe Sevigny "Lean on Pete", Penelope Cruz "Murder on the Orient Express", Judi Dench "Murder on the Orient Express", Dafne Keen "Logan", Rosamund Pike "Hostiles", Rebecca Feguson "The Greatest Showman", Rebecca Ferguson "The Snowman", Tiffany Haddish "Girls Trip", Michelle Williams "Wonderstruck"
Commentary - I have moved Carrie Fisher out of the top five for a moment, but I still have hope that Oscar voters will finally recognize this role and this incredible woman. In the post-festival world, some previously unknown contenders have emerged. Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney are known more for their television and stage work, but both are beloved veteran actresses with impeccable resumes. Both have emerged out of the festivals with career-best work, and rave reviews. This category can favor veteran actors, and first-time nominees, so both have a great show if the buzz can be sustained. After Darkest Hour premiered, it was clear that this would be a hit with Oscar voters, so I moved Kristen Scott Thomas into this race. She is a previous nominee, and plays Clemmy Churchill, which is a role that has earned other actresses many accolades. The other two are still hanging from my original summer predictions. If Netflix pushes Mudbound right, it could be a big Oscar contender, including singer Mary J. Blige who earned raves out of Sundance. But Netflix just lost big at the Emmys, and I wonder if their release and marketing strategy will work with Oscar voters. Finally, I am holding out a spot for perennial nominee Michelle Williams. If The Greatest Showman is good enough, she could easily be the front runner. We have seen the narrative of "overdue" play well in recent years with wins from the likes of Viola Davis, Julianne Moore, and others. Williams definitely fits into that category. Beyond those five, there are plenty of contenders waiting in the wings. Octavia Spencer is yet again a scene-stealer in The Shape of Water, which earned raves out of Venice. Melissa Leo is always well-liked, Hon Chau and Kristen Wiig might overcome Downsizing's mixed reviews, Holly Hunter is the best contender from the first half of the year, and despite mixed reactions, mother! could earn Michelle Pfeiffer another Oscar nomination. Lesley Manville is an overdue veteran in a PTA film, Lois Smith is a legend, television stars Carrie Coon and Sarah Paulson could rise with The Post, Julia Roberts could return as the mom in Wonder, Kate Hudson could finally make an Oscar comeback, and Nicole Kidman could make it back to back nominations following her first Emmy win. Also, watch out for the blockbuster contenders Catherine Keener, Dafne Keen, Penelope Cruz, and the fantastic Tiffany Haddish.
Mary J. Blige "Mudbound"
Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf "Lady Bird"
Kristen Scott Thomas "Darkest Hour"
Michelle Williams "The Greatest Showman"
Other Contenders - Carrie Fisher "Star Wars: The Last Jedi", Octavia Spencer "The Shape of Water", Melissa Leo "Novitiate", Hong Chau "Downsizing", Kristen Wiig "Downsizing", Holly Hunter "The Big Sick", Michelle Pfeiffer "mother!", Lesley Manville "Phantom Thread", Margot Robbie "Goodbye Christopher Robin", Catherine Keener "Get Out", Sarah Paulson "The Post", Carrie Coon "The Post", Julianne Moore "Wonderstruck", Lois Smith "Marjorie Prime", Kate Hudson "Marshall", Juno Temple "Wonder Wheel", Julia Roberts "Wonder", Nicole Kidman "The Killing of the Secret Deer", Chloe Sevigny "Lean on Pete", Penelope Cruz "Murder on the Orient Express", Judi Dench "Murder on the Orient Express", Dafne Keen "Logan", Rosamund Pike "Hostiles", Rebecca Feguson "The Greatest Showman", Rebecca Ferguson "The Snowman", Tiffany Haddish "Girls Trip", Michelle Williams "Wonderstruck"
Commentary - I have moved Carrie Fisher out of the top five for a moment, but I still have hope that Oscar voters will finally recognize this role and this incredible woman. In the post-festival world, some previously unknown contenders have emerged. Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney are known more for their television and stage work, but both are beloved veteran actresses with impeccable resumes. Both have emerged out of the festivals with career-best work, and rave reviews. This category can favor veteran actors, and first-time nominees, so both have a great show if the buzz can be sustained. After Darkest Hour premiered, it was clear that this would be a hit with Oscar voters, so I moved Kristen Scott Thomas into this race. She is a previous nominee, and plays Clemmy Churchill, which is a role that has earned other actresses many accolades. The other two are still hanging from my original summer predictions. If Netflix pushes Mudbound right, it could be a big Oscar contender, including singer Mary J. Blige who earned raves out of Sundance. But Netflix just lost big at the Emmys, and I wonder if their release and marketing strategy will work with Oscar voters. Finally, I am holding out a spot for perennial nominee Michelle Williams. If The Greatest Showman is good enough, she could easily be the front runner. We have seen the narrative of "overdue" play well in recent years with wins from the likes of Viola Davis, Julianne Moore, and others. Williams definitely fits into that category. Beyond those five, there are plenty of contenders waiting in the wings. Octavia Spencer is yet again a scene-stealer in The Shape of Water, which earned raves out of Venice. Melissa Leo is always well-liked, Hon Chau and Kristen Wiig might overcome Downsizing's mixed reviews, Holly Hunter is the best contender from the first half of the year, and despite mixed reactions, mother! could earn Michelle Pfeiffer another Oscar nomination. Lesley Manville is an overdue veteran in a PTA film, Lois Smith is a legend, television stars Carrie Coon and Sarah Paulson could rise with The Post, Julia Roberts could return as the mom in Wonder, Kate Hudson could finally make an Oscar comeback, and Nicole Kidman could make it back to back nominations following her first Emmy win. Also, watch out for the blockbuster contenders Catherine Keener, Dafne Keen, Penelope Cruz, and the fantastic Tiffany Haddish.
Sunday, September 17, 2017
The 69th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards
I will update the winners live!:
Best Drama Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Comedy Series - Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Sterling K. Brown "This is Us"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Donald Glover "Atlanta"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - John Lithgow "The Crown"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Ann Dowd "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Laura Dern "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Reed Morano "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Bruce Miller "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)"
Best Directing in a Comedy Series - Donald Glover "Atlanta - B.A.N."
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe "Master of None - Thanksgiving"
Best Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Made for Television Movie - Black Mirror: San Junipero
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Riz Ahmed "The Night Of"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Nicole Kidman "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Alexander Skarsgard "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Jean-Marc Vallee "Big Little Lies"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Charlie Brooker "Black Mirror: San Junipero"
Best Variety Talk Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Variety Sketch Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Host: Jimmy Fallon"
Best Writing in a Variety Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Reality Competition Series - The Voice
Best Drama Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Comedy Series - Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Sterling K. Brown "This is Us"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Donald Glover "Atlanta"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - John Lithgow "The Crown"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Ann Dowd "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Laura Dern "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Reed Morano "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Bruce Miller "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)"
Best Directing in a Comedy Series - Donald Glover "Atlanta - B.A.N."
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe "Master of None - Thanksgiving"
Best Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Made for Television Movie - Black Mirror: San Junipero
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Riz Ahmed "The Night Of"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Nicole Kidman "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Alexander Skarsgard "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Jean-Marc Vallee "Big Little Lies"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Charlie Brooker "Black Mirror: San Junipero"
Best Variety Talk Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Variety Sketch Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Host: Jimmy Fallon"
Best Writing in a Variety Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Reality Competition Series - The Voice
Saturday, September 16, 2017
2017 Emmy Predictions: Final List
Here we go! The final of the final list. There is no going back:
Best Drama Series - Stranger Things
Best Comedy Series - Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Sterling Brown "This is Us"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - John Lithgow "The Crown"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Millie Bobby Brown "Stranger Things"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Stranger Things - The Vanishing of Will Byers
Best Writing in a Drama Series - The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Atlanta - B.A.N."
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Master of None - Thanksgiving
Best TV Movie - Sherlock: The Lying Detective
Best Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Riz Ahmed "The Night Of"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Nicole Kidman "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Alexander Skarsgard "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Laura Dern "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing of a TV Movie/Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Writing of a TV Movie/Limited Series - The Night of - Call of the Wild
Best Reality-Competition Series - RuPaul's Drag Race
Best Variety Talk Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Variety Sketch Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Writing in a Variety Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Drama Series - Stranger Things
Best Comedy Series - Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Sterling Brown "This is Us"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - John Lithgow "The Crown"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Millie Bobby Brown "Stranger Things"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Stranger Things - The Vanishing of Will Byers
Best Writing in a Drama Series - The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Atlanta - B.A.N."
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Master of None - Thanksgiving
Best TV Movie - Sherlock: The Lying Detective
Best Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Riz Ahmed "The Night Of"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Nicole Kidman "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Alexander Skarsgard "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Laura Dern "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing of a TV Movie/Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Writing of a TV Movie/Limited Series - The Night of - Call of the Wild
Best Reality-Competition Series - RuPaul's Drag Race
Best Variety Talk Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Variety Sketch Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Writing in a Variety Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series
Best Drama Series
Will Win - Stranger Things
Could Win - The Handmaid's Tale, This is Us, or Westworld
Should Win - This is Us or Stranger Things
Commentary - This is still a tight race, and until the envelope is opened, we will all be waiting with anticipation. With 22 nominations, Westworld had every opportunity to continue HBO's streak. But only winning five Creative Arts Emmys is actually not great for a show with film quality technical achievements. Westworld should have been this year's Game of Thrones or Boardwalk Empire, and it fell way short. But it is still in this, because HBO is an Emmy juggernaut. The Handmaid's Tale is the newest of the contenders, and had some nice, some surprising wins last weekend. But in my mind this is a battle between two. This is Us is the one that stands out in this race. It is the only broadcast show, it is emotional, feel-good, and it is a massive phenomenon across all ages. It could win, despite missing out in directing and writing, and it would be a massive win for the veterans or traditionalists in this industry who still believe in joy and exuberance on television. But I think that after it over-performed last week, this is Stranger Things' to lose. It is nostalgic, emotional, beautifully crafted, and like This Is Us, can be categorized as a phenomenon. I think Netflix, with its clout, finally conquers one of these big races. Streaming finally eclipses its competition. And a brilliant, genre series that has enticed millions, will win a well-deserved Best Drama Series Emmy.
Best Comedy Series
Will Win - Veep
Could Win - Atlanta or Master of None
Should Win - black-ish
Commentary - Duh. Atlanta and Master of None are auteur brilliance. But neither are going to get enough votes to beat Veep. Let's face it. Emmy voters like their comedies funny. Master of None is, but Atlanta is really not. It's great. But it's not funny. Veep is the kind of show that wins this category a lot, and a third win in a row is going to happen. If anything else wins, I will eat crow, but I find it highly unlikely that anything can upset.
Will Win - Stranger Things
Could Win - The Handmaid's Tale, This is Us, or Westworld
Should Win - This is Us or Stranger Things
Commentary - This is still a tight race, and until the envelope is opened, we will all be waiting with anticipation. With 22 nominations, Westworld had every opportunity to continue HBO's streak. But only winning five Creative Arts Emmys is actually not great for a show with film quality technical achievements. Westworld should have been this year's Game of Thrones or Boardwalk Empire, and it fell way short. But it is still in this, because HBO is an Emmy juggernaut. The Handmaid's Tale is the newest of the contenders, and had some nice, some surprising wins last weekend. But in my mind this is a battle between two. This is Us is the one that stands out in this race. It is the only broadcast show, it is emotional, feel-good, and it is a massive phenomenon across all ages. It could win, despite missing out in directing and writing, and it would be a massive win for the veterans or traditionalists in this industry who still believe in joy and exuberance on television. But I think that after it over-performed last week, this is Stranger Things' to lose. It is nostalgic, emotional, beautifully crafted, and like This Is Us, can be categorized as a phenomenon. I think Netflix, with its clout, finally conquers one of these big races. Streaming finally eclipses its competition. And a brilliant, genre series that has enticed millions, will win a well-deserved Best Drama Series Emmy.
Best Comedy Series
Will Win - Veep
Could Win - Atlanta or Master of None
Should Win - black-ish
Commentary - Duh. Atlanta and Master of None are auteur brilliance. But neither are going to get enough votes to beat Veep. Let's face it. Emmy voters like their comedies funny. Master of None is, but Atlanta is really not. It's great. But it's not funny. Veep is the kind of show that wins this category a lot, and a third win in a row is going to happen. If anything else wins, I will eat crow, but I find it highly unlikely that anything can upset.
Thursday, September 14, 2017
2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Actor and Actress in a Drama Series
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win - Sterling K. Brown "This is Us"
Could Win - Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"
Should Win - Either Brown or Odenkirk
Commentary - Bob Odenkirk finally has a shot this year, but I think that Sterling K. Brown is a juggernaut in this race. He just won last year, he is beloved among these voters, and of the two shows, This is Us has a lot more support across the acting branches compared to Better Call Saul. I think it is Brown to the podium again. On a personal note, either win would make me happy, both are great actors in great roles.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Could Win - Claire Foy "The Crown" or Evan Rachel Wood "Westworld"
Should Win - Moss
Commentary - A few months ago, this was Foy's to win, with Wood as the spoiler. But since the premiere of The Handmaid's Tale, Elisabeth Moss has shot to the top. The show did surprising well at the Creative Arts, including the win for Alexis Bledel, Moss is overdue after her Mad Men run, and this role really has the buzz compared to the other nominees.
Will Win - Sterling K. Brown "This is Us"
Could Win - Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"
Should Win - Either Brown or Odenkirk
Commentary - Bob Odenkirk finally has a shot this year, but I think that Sterling K. Brown is a juggernaut in this race. He just won last year, he is beloved among these voters, and of the two shows, This is Us has a lot more support across the acting branches compared to Better Call Saul. I think it is Brown to the podium again. On a personal note, either win would make me happy, both are great actors in great roles.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Could Win - Claire Foy "The Crown" or Evan Rachel Wood "Westworld"
Should Win - Moss
Commentary - A few months ago, this was Foy's to win, with Wood as the spoiler. But since the premiere of The Handmaid's Tale, Elisabeth Moss has shot to the top. The show did surprising well at the Creative Arts, including the win for Alexis Bledel, Moss is overdue after her Mad Men run, and this role really has the buzz compared to the other nominees.
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"
Could Win - Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent" or Donald Glover "Atlanta"
Should Win - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"
Commentary - So let's be honest, I have been playing this safe; and it would not be an Emmy season without at least one out of the box choice. So here it is: Anthony Anderson. Jeffrey Tambor could easily win a third, as Transparent remains popular with the actors, despite a Comedy Series snub. Zach Galifianakis could pull a Louie Anderson playing a clown, which has won several folks Emmys including Eric Stonestreet recently. Aziz Ansari is popular, William H. Macy is a beloved veteran, and Donald Glover, while an unusual choice considering Emmy history, would be a bold one for this industry. Most folks are predicting either Glover or Tambor, and it would not be surprising if either won. Honestly, any of these six winning would not shock me. This is why I am going out on a limb for this category. In my opinion, there are too many maybes, and that usually spells surprise at the Emmys. In this, the year of the anti-Trump, Anthony Anderson's Lemons episode is just the fodder that led McCarthy and Chappelle to guest acting Emmys. It will probably help McKinnon and Baldwin in these categories as well. Of course, some would argue that Tambor and Glover winning would also make political statements, but theirs would be a bit more subtle. I think that Anderson is overdue for some recognition for this role, I think the climate is right, and I think this category is ripe for an upset.
Could Win - Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent" or Donald Glover "Atlanta"
Should Win - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"
Commentary - So let's be honest, I have been playing this safe; and it would not be an Emmy season without at least one out of the box choice. So here it is: Anthony Anderson. Jeffrey Tambor could easily win a third, as Transparent remains popular with the actors, despite a Comedy Series snub. Zach Galifianakis could pull a Louie Anderson playing a clown, which has won several folks Emmys including Eric Stonestreet recently. Aziz Ansari is popular, William H. Macy is a beloved veteran, and Donald Glover, while an unusual choice considering Emmy history, would be a bold one for this industry. Most folks are predicting either Glover or Tambor, and it would not be surprising if either won. Honestly, any of these six winning would not shock me. This is why I am going out on a limb for this category. In my opinion, there are too many maybes, and that usually spells surprise at the Emmys. In this, the year of the anti-Trump, Anthony Anderson's Lemons episode is just the fodder that led McCarthy and Chappelle to guest acting Emmys. It will probably help McKinnon and Baldwin in these categories as well. Of course, some would argue that Tambor and Glover winning would also make political statements, but theirs would be a bit more subtle. I think that Anderson is overdue for some recognition for this role, I think the climate is right, and I think this category is ripe for an upset.
Monday, September 11, 2017
2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Could Win - Allison Janney "Mom" or Tracee Ellis Ross "black-ish"
Should Win - Tracee Ellis Ross "black-ish"
Commentary - Will anyone de-throne the reigning queen? Probably at some point, but I don't think it is going to be this year. Until Julia Louis-Dreyfus loses, I am picking her to win. If anyone can pull off a miracle, I think that it is either Allison Janney or Tracee Ellis Ross. Janney is beloved among these voters, and has won for this role before. Ross would have been in a better position had black-ish earned more nominations, but never discount a pregnant story line. It has afforded many actresses Emmys over the years.
Could Win - Allison Janney "Mom" or Tracee Ellis Ross "black-ish"
Should Win - Tracee Ellis Ross "black-ish"
Commentary - Will anyone de-throne the reigning queen? Probably at some point, but I don't think it is going to be this year. Until Julia Louis-Dreyfus loses, I am picking her to win. If anyone can pull off a miracle, I think that it is either Allison Janney or Tracee Ellis Ross. Janney is beloved among these voters, and has won for this role before. Ross would have been in a better position had black-ish earned more nominations, but never discount a pregnant story line. It has afforded many actresses Emmys over the years.
Sunday, September 10, 2017
2017 Creative Arts Emmy Awards: Part II
Once again, I will update the winners live!:
Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series - Gerald McRaney "This is Us"
Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series - Alexis Bledel "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series - Dave Chappelle "Saturday Night Live"
Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series - Melissa McCarthy "Saturday Night Live"
Best Casting in a Drama Series - Stranger Things
Best Casting in a Comedy Series - Veep
Best Casting in a Movie/Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Children's Program - Once Upon a Sesame Street Christmas
Best Short Form Comedy or Drama Series - Los Pollos Hermanos Employee Training
Best Actor in a Short Form Series - Kim Estes "Dicks"
Best Actress in a Short Form Series - Jane Lynch "Dropping the Soap"
Best Cinematography for a Multi-Camera Series - The Ranch
Best Cinematography for a Half-Hour Single Camera Series - Veep
Best Cinematography for a One-Hour Single Camera Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Cinematography for a Limited Series/Movie - The Night Of
Best Commercial - Calling JohnMalkovich.com - Squarespace
Best Costumes, Contemporary for Comedy, Drama or Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Costumes, Period/Fantasy for Comedy, Drama, or Limited Series - The Crown
Best Multi-Camera Picture Editing for a Comedy Series - The Big Bang Theory
Best Single Camera Picture Editing for a Drama Series - Stranger Things: Chapter 1
Best Single Camera Picture Editing for a Comedy Series - Master of None
Best Single Camera Picture Editing in a Limited Series for Movie - The Night Of
Best Hairstyling in a Single Camera Series - Westworld
Best Hairstyling in a Movie or Limited Series - Feud: Bette and Joan
Best Creative Achievement in Interactive Media in a Scripted Series - Westworld
Best Original Interactive Program - The People's House - Inside The White House With Barack And Michelle Obama
Best Makeup for a Single-Camera Series - Westworld
Best Makeup Movie/Limited Series - Feud: Bette and Joan
Best Prosthetic Makeup - American Horror Story: Roanoke
Best Main Title Design - Stranger Things
Best Main Title Music Theme - Stranger Things
Best Music Composition for a Series - House of Cards
Best Music Composition for Movie/Limited Series - Fargo
Best Music Supervision - Big Little Lies
Best Production Design for a Contemporary/Fantasy Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Production Design for a Period One-Hour Series - The Crown
Best Production Design for a Half-Hour Narrative - Veep
Best Sound Editing for a Series - Stranger Things
Best Sound Editing for a Movie/Limited Series - The Night Of
Best Sound Mixing for a One-Hour Comedy/Drama Series - Westworld
Best Sound Mixing for a Half-Hour Comedy/Drama Series - Mozart in the Jungle
Best Sound Mixing for a Movie/Limited Series - The Night Of
Best Stunt Coordination for a Comedy or Variety Series - Shameless
Best Stunt Coordination for a Drama, Movie or Limited Series - Marvel's Luke Cage
Best Special Visual Effects - Westworld
Best Special Visual Effects in a Supporting Role - Gotham
Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series - Gerald McRaney "This is Us"
Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series - Alexis Bledel "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series - Dave Chappelle "Saturday Night Live"
Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series - Melissa McCarthy "Saturday Night Live"
Best Casting in a Drama Series - Stranger Things
Best Casting in a Comedy Series - Veep
Best Casting in a Movie/Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Children's Program - Once Upon a Sesame Street Christmas
Best Short Form Comedy or Drama Series - Los Pollos Hermanos Employee Training
Best Actor in a Short Form Series - Kim Estes "Dicks"
Best Actress in a Short Form Series - Jane Lynch "Dropping the Soap"
Best Cinematography for a Multi-Camera Series - The Ranch
Best Cinematography for a Half-Hour Single Camera Series - Veep
Best Cinematography for a One-Hour Single Camera Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Cinematography for a Limited Series/Movie - The Night Of
Best Commercial - Calling JohnMalkovich.com - Squarespace
Best Costumes, Contemporary for Comedy, Drama or Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Costumes, Period/Fantasy for Comedy, Drama, or Limited Series - The Crown
Best Multi-Camera Picture Editing for a Comedy Series - The Big Bang Theory
Best Single Camera Picture Editing for a Drama Series - Stranger Things: Chapter 1
Best Single Camera Picture Editing for a Comedy Series - Master of None
Best Single Camera Picture Editing in a Limited Series for Movie - The Night Of
Best Hairstyling in a Single Camera Series - Westworld
Best Hairstyling in a Movie or Limited Series - Feud: Bette and Joan
Best Creative Achievement in Interactive Media in a Scripted Series - Westworld
Best Original Interactive Program - The People's House - Inside The White House With Barack And Michelle Obama
Best Makeup for a Single-Camera Series - Westworld
Best Makeup Movie/Limited Series - Feud: Bette and Joan
Best Prosthetic Makeup - American Horror Story: Roanoke
Best Main Title Design - Stranger Things
Best Main Title Music Theme - Stranger Things
Best Music Composition for a Series - House of Cards
Best Music Composition for Movie/Limited Series - Fargo
Best Music Supervision - Big Little Lies
Best Production Design for a Contemporary/Fantasy Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Production Design for a Period One-Hour Series - The Crown
Best Production Design for a Half-Hour Narrative - Veep
Best Sound Editing for a Series - Stranger Things
Best Sound Editing for a Movie/Limited Series - The Night Of
Best Sound Mixing for a One-Hour Comedy/Drama Series - Westworld
Best Sound Mixing for a Half-Hour Comedy/Drama Series - Mozart in the Jungle
Best Sound Mixing for a Movie/Limited Series - The Night Of
Best Stunt Coordination for a Comedy or Variety Series - Shameless
Best Stunt Coordination for a Drama, Movie or Limited Series - Marvel's Luke Cage
Best Special Visual Effects - Westworld
Best Special Visual Effects in a Supporting Role - Gotham
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