Will Win - One Battle After Another
Could Win - Sinners
Should Win - One Battle After Another
Commentary - Sinners' SAG win gave it the momentum, and there is a lot of sentiment after the BAFTA incident. It is incredibly popular. But it is also a horror/musical, and up until SAG, it has not done as well with the industry votes compared to One Battle After Another. Sinners benefits from the longer season, and momentum. One Battle benefits from previous industry support, and more support with the international crowd. I think One Battle is an audacious masterpiece, and while I really love Sinners as well, One Battle is on another level. I am sticking with One Battle because I feel like it will do better on the preferential ballot, but it is a fight to the finish.
Best Director
Will Win - Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Could Win - Ryan Coogler "Sinners"
Should Win - Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Commentary - I feel like no matter what happens in Best Picture, that Paul Thomas Anderson is in a strong position to win Best Director. He has won every major precursor, and is incredibly overdue. But Ryan Coogler could be this year's Bong Joon-ho, where if Sinners wins BP, it could bring him along for the ride.
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