The Oscar Narrative: Post 2025 Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Post 2025 Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions

Anora

Blitz

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune Part II

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

A Real Pain

Wicked

Other Contenders - Sing Sing, The Room Next Door, September 5, Challengers, Babygirl, The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, Saturday Night, Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, I'm Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Queer, The Substance, All We Imagine as Light, Hard Truths, A Different Man, Maria, His Three Daughters, The Last Showgirl, Bird, The Fire Inside, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nightbitch

Commentary - Out of the fall and summer festival we know that The Brutalist, Anora, Conclave, and Emilia Perez are strong heading into the critics awards in a few weeks. Dune Part II is the early contender that, like its predecessor, should be able to hold out, and ride its technical pizzazz to a Best Picture nomination. The Gladiator II reviews are decidedly mixed. But it is the sequel of the Best Picture winner, has a lot of people praising it, and is set to be a huge hit at the box office. With ten slots, I think it could get in. Blitz is probably the least well-received of Steve McQueen's projects. But it still has good reviews, is an historical epic, and has a lot of big names attached. A Complete Unknown is right now, unknown, but it has a great director, a spectacular cast, and an interesting muse. A Real Pain was a hit out of Cannes, and it continues to garner raves. I think it sneaks in. Finally, I have no idea what the ultimate reaction to Wicked will be, and after I banked on The Color Purple last year, I am a bit weary. But initial reactions are good, it has a ton of buzz, and if it rockets at the box office, it could be a big contender. Beyond those ten, the early contenders and festival favorites like Sing Sing, The Room Next Door, Challengers, Babygirl, Saturday Night, Nightbitch, Hard Truths, The Piano Lsson, The Substance, A Different Man, Maria, His Three Daughters, Queer, The Last Showgirl, Bird, and The Fire Inside are all clamoring for some early attention. With an increasingly international membership, works like I'm Still Here, All We Imagine as Light, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig stand to do well. Finally, big names like The Wild Robot, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, and Furiosa hope to take the "blockbuster" spot in the top ten.