The Oscar Narrative: First 2025 Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

First 2025 Nomination Predictions

Kieran Culkin "A Real Pain" 

Samuel L. Jackson "The Piano Lesson"

Clarence Maclin "Sing Sing" 

Stanley Tucci "Conclave"

Denzel Washington "Gladiator II"

Other Contenders - Edward Norton "A Complete Unknown", John Lithgow "Conclave", Austin Butler "Dune Part II", Pedro Pascal "Gladiator II", Lamore Morris "SNL: 1975", Mark Eydelshteyn "Anora", Yura Borisov "Anora", Hugh Grant "Heretic", Brian Tyree Henry "The Fire Inside", Stephen Graham "Blitz", Adam Pearson "A Different Man", Drew Starkey "Queer", Harris Dickinson "Blitz", Fred Hechinger "Gladiator II", Tom Hardy "The Bikeriders", Jay O. Sanders "His Three Daughters", Richard Roundtree "Thelma", Ray Fisher "The Piano Lesson", Daveed Diggs "Nickel Boys", Jeremy Strong "The Apprentice", Brendan Gleeson "Joker: Folie à Deux", Willem Dafoe "Kinds of Kindness", Jonathan Bailey "Wicked", Matthew Macfadyen "Holland, Michigan", Paul Raci "Sing Sing", Nicholas Braun "SNL: 1975", Dylan O’Brien "SNL: 1975", J.K. Simmons "SNL: 1975"

Commentary - An interesting category this year, that has a lot of new/under-rewarded talent simmering at the surface. I am going to go with legends like Denzel Washington, Stanley Tucci, and Samuel L. Jackson in buzzed projects, because early on it is best to bank on known properties. I am hearing a ton of buzz for Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing, so he is in for now, but the buzz has to sustain itself for a long time. Finally, I am going with Emmy winner Kieran Culkin, in another buzzed performance that needs to have staying power to keep its spot. Beyond those five, be on the lookout for previous winners and nominees like Edward Norton, John Lithgow, Austin Butler, Brian Tyree Henry, Tom Hardy, Brendan Gleeson, Willem Dafoe, Paul Raci, and J.K. Simmons. But the list of potential first-timers far outweighs the veterans list, and could make this race exciting. I could list all of those folks, but you can see the names above. This is a particularly fluid race that I am anticipating will be a fight to the finish.