The Oscar Narrative: January Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

January Nomination Predictions

Viola Davis "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Andra Day "The United States vs. Billie Holiday" 

Vanessa Kirby "Pieces of a Woman" 

Frances McDormand "Nomadland"

Carey Mulligan "Promising Young Woman" 

Other Contenders- Sophia Loren "The Life Ahead", Kate Winslet "Ammonite", Zendaya "Malcolm & Marie", Sidney Flanigan "Never Rarely Sometimes Always", Meryl Streep "Let Them All Talk", Meryl Streep "The Prom", Nicole Beharie "Miss Juneteenth", Michelle Pfeiffer "French Exit", Elisabeth Moss "The Invisible Man", Elisabeth Moss "Shirley", Jessie Buckley "I'm Thinking of Ending Things", Yeri Han "Minari", Rashida Jones "On the Rocks", Julia Garner "The Assistant", Carrie Coon "The Nest", Radha Blank "The Forty-Year-Old Version" 

Commentary - So this one has seemingly made it a four-way race. Viola Davis, Carey Mulligan and Frances McDormand all feel like locks, and have shared the critical awards so far. I also still feel pretty good about Vanessa Kirby. Netflix is pushing the film, and she is so damn good in the film. The last slot though? Anybody's game. I have moved Andra Day up into the fifth slot. Apparently the film, as a whole, is not the best, but she is apparently fantastic. This gives me flashbacks to Renee Zellweger and Rami Malek. But that slot, and maybe Kirby's are really open to challengers. The legendary Sophia Loren could get yet another nomination for The Life Ahead. Kate Winslet was in this race, but Ammonite's buzz is dying. She should not be discounted though. Zendaya has crashed the party with Malcolm & Marie, but it is, so far, dividing critics, which may hurt its buzz. Beyond Loren, legends Meryl Streep and Michelle Pfeiffer are hoping that the guilds and Globes go to bat for them and pull them into the race. There are also a lot of young, indie, and comedy/genre contenders that could crash the party, and many of them are worthy, including Sidney Flanigan, Nicole Beharie (who won the Gotham!), Jessie Buckley, Elisabeth Moss (in two roles), Yeri Han, Rashida Jones, Julia Garner, Carrie Coon, and a personal favorite Radha Blank.