Saturday, March 6, 2010

Final Academy Award Predictions

Best Picture

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Up in the Air
Could Win: The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds
Commentary: I guess three sci-fi movies in one year was too much, but on to the race. I have been back and forth and narrowly I am going with Avatar. It is the movie that will change movie history, has changed movie history. To be honest though, my gut is going with The Hurt Locker, but I am going to stick to my guns. Also watch out for the Basterds, they are lurking…

Best Director

Will Win/Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker”
Could Win: James Cameron “Avatar”
Commentary: Ironically, the top two picks this year were not actors movies, or writer’s movies, but directorial feats, pet projects that came to fruition because of the masterminds behind them. Both Bigelow and Cameron deserve this award, but Bigelow deserves just a little bit more. No matter what happens with Picture, I think this one is in the bag.

Best Actor

Will Win/Should Win: Jeff Bridges “Crazy Heart
Could Win: Jeremy Renner “The Hurt Locker
Commentary: If there is any justice in the world, The Dude will take home that elusive Oscar. Not only is his career worthy of a win, but he happened to give the best lead performance by any male actor this year. Period.

Best Actress

Will Win: Sandra Bullock “The Blind Side”
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe “Precious”
Could Win: Meryl Streep “Julie & Julia”
Commentary: Gabby gave the most astonishing performance I had seen any many years, but is being overshadowed by her elder stateswomen. This battle is Streep v. Bullock, and with the unexpected support for The Blind Side, and the SAG win, I think she will finally get some recognition for 20 years of service to Hollywood.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Christoph Waltz “Inglourious Basterds”
Should Win: Christoph Waltz or Christopher Plummer “The Last Station”
Could Win: Woody Harrelson “The Messenger”
Commentary: Christopher Plummer finally got a long-awaited and long overdue Oscar nomination, but this is Christoph Waltz’s year, and he is going for gold.

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Mo’Nique “Precious”
Could Win: no one
Commentary: Duh

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Mark Boal “The Hurt Locker”
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino “Inglourious Basterds or the team from Up
Could Win: One of the three above
Commentary: Up and Inglourious Basterds were original, funny, and deserving. The Hurt Locker didn’t have the best script by any means, but I think it will win here. But if Quentin wins I’ll be jumping for joy.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win/Should Win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner “Up in the Air”
Could Win: Geoffrey Fletcher “Precious”
Commentary: Up in the Air deserves something, and this is the place for it. It was the wittiest and timeliest of all the BP nominations, and I hope it at least walks away with one piece of hardware.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win/Should Win: Up
Could Win: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Commentary: Up was Pixar at its best, and being a BP nominee kinda seals this one in the bag.

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: The Cove
Should Win: Food Inc.
Commentary: The Cove has won all the major precursors, and I think this one has it is bag.

Best Art Direction

Should Win: Nine
Will Win: Avatar
Commentary: Because if it wins Best Picture, it needs at least 3 other awards. OK that’s not a rule, but I’m going with it at this point.

Best Cinematography

Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Avatar or The Hurt Locker
Could Win: The White Ribbon
Commentary: I have no idea who is going to win this, hell even one of the other 3 nominees could win. So I am taking the liberty as a blogger and giving it to two movies, so I’m guessing one of the other three will win.

Best Costume Design

Should Win: Bright Star
Will Win: The Young Victoria
Could Win: Nine
Commentary: The flashiest of the period pieces usually wins, so I’m going with Vicky.

Best Film Editing

Should Win: Avatar
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Could Win: Avatar, Inglourious Basterds
Commentary: I’m putting this in the winners column for The Hurt Locker. A month ago, I thought this one would be the Best Picture decider. Now I think HL will win, and it doesn’t mean much when it comes to the big prize.

Best Makeup

Will Win/Should Win: Star Trek
Could Win: The Young Victoria
Commentary: The Young Victoria won the BAFTA, so I’m hesitant to go with Trek, but I think they will reward Star Trek as the best of the three movies, kinda like a consolation prize.

Best Original Score

Should Win/Will Win: Michael Giacchino “Up”
Could Win: James Horner “Avatar” or The Hurt Locker guys
Commentary: While The Hurt Locker or Avatar could take this in a sweep, the best score of the year was Up, and it deserves and hopefully will win this one.

Best Original Song

Should Win/Will Win: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart
Could Win: Take It All from Nine
Commentary: No reason, just will.

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Hurt Locker
Commentary: This one is kinda up for grabs. It’s either between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. I’m going with Avatar because it deserves it…period.

Best Sound Editing

Should Win/Will Win: Avatar
Could Win: The Hurt Locker
Commentary: Unlike like its predecessor, I think Avatar actually has this one wrapped up.

Best Visual Effects

Should Win/Will Win: Avatar
Commentary: Duh.

Best Documentary Short – The Last Truck
Best Animated Short – A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Live Action Short – Miracle Fish

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