Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller "The Father"
Vanessa Taylor "Hillbilly Elegy"
Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass "News of the World"
Chloe Zhao "Nomadland"
Kemp Powers "One Night in Miami"
Other Contenders - Taika Waititi and Iain Morris "Next Goal Wins", Jon Spaihts, Denis Villenueve, and Eric Roth "Dune", Charlie Kaufman "I'm Thinking of Ending Things", Simon Blackwell and Armando Iannucci "The Personal History of David Copperfield", Ruben Santiago-Hudson "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom", Chad Beguelin and Bob Martin "The Prom", Suzan-Lori Parks "The United States vs. Billie Holiday", Geoff Johns, Patty Jenkins, Dave Callaham "Wonder Woman 1984", Dan Gillespie Sells and Tom MacRae "Everbody's Talking About Jamie", Taylor Sheridan and Akiva Goldsman "Tom Clancy's Without Remorse", Julie Taymor and Sarah Ruhl "The Glorias", Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Elizabeth Martin, and Lauren Hynek "Mulan", Jon Raymond and Kelly Reichardt "First Cow", Patrick DeWitt "French Exit", Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, Cary Joji Fukunaga, and Phoebe Waller-Bridge "No Time to Die"
Commentary - I started my Oscar predictions early, per usual, only to stop midway. Even now, I have removed West Side Story and The Eternals which have announced their movement to next year's Oscar race. So as these predictions unfold, things might change, things will most likely change. For now, let's start this Oscar race! We know that One Night in Miami and Nomandland have come out of the slimmed-down fall festivals as serious Oscar contenders, both from female film makers. Regina King, already an Oscar winner made her film directing debut of the adaptation of One Night in Miami, and is getting rave reviews. But the Oscar front runner, especially after winning Toronto's People Choice Award is Nomadland. I have been keeping an eye on Chloe Zhao, whose trajectory in Hollywood has been astronomical. This year, she is probably going to get into the Oscar race for the first time. The power and popularity of these films, and their emotional stories, should translate into screenplay nominations. The Father, an adaption of the Tony-winning play, is also getting rave reviews for its story and its acting, and I think it also makes the cut. Finally, I am taking a chance on two unknowns. Frist is News of the World from Paul Greengrass, which just looks like Oscar on its face. So does Hillbilly Elegy from Oscar-nominated scribe Vanessa Taylor. Beyond those five, it could be Next Goal Wins from last year's winner Taika Waititi (if it gets a release date in time), the epic Dune (sci-fi can struggle here, it either gets it or it misses), Charlie Kaufman's latest, the British favorite The Personal History of David Copperfield, and the adaptation of the stage favorite Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. There are the big blockbusters like The Prom, Wonder Woman 1984, Mulan, Without Remorse and No Time to Die. There are some indies or mid-level films like The United States vs. Billie Holiday, First Cow, and Everybody's Talking About Jamie. If everything shakes out the way we think, this is going to be a tough and fun race to watch.
