Thursday, December 4, 2025

American Film Institute (AFI) Awards

AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR
AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH
BUGONIA
FRANKENSTEIN
HAMNET
JAY KELLY
MARTY SUPREME
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
SINNERS
TRAIN DREAMS
WICKED: FOR GOOD

AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR
ADOLESCENCE
ANDOR
DEATH BY LIGHTNING
THE DIPLOMAT
THE LOWDOWN
THE PITT
PLUR1BUS
SEVERANCE
THE STUDIO

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

41st Film Independent Spirit Award Nominations

BEST FEATURE (Award given to the producer)
Peter Hujar’s Day
Producers: Jonah Disend, Jordan Drake

The Plague
Producers: Derek Dauchy, Joel Edgerton, Roy Lee, Lucy McKendrick, Steven Schneider, Lizzie Shapiro

Sorry, Baby
Producers: Mark Ceryak, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski

Train Dreams
Producers: Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer, Teddy Schwarzman

Twinless
Producers: David Permut, James Sweeney
 
BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to director and producer)
Blue Sun Palace
Director: Constance Tsang
Producers: Sally Sujin Oh, Eli Raskin, Tony Yang

Dust Bunny
Director/Producer: Bryan Fuller
Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Erica Lee

East of Wall
Director/Producer: Kate Beecroft
Producers: Shannon Moss, Melanie Ramsayer, Lila Yacoub

Lurker
Director: Alex Russell
Producers: Galen Core, Archie Madekwe, Marc Marrie, Charlie McDowell, Francesco Melzi D’Eril, Duncan Montgomery, Alex Orlovsky, Olmo Schnabel, Jack Selby

One of Them Days
Director: Lawrence Lamont
Producers: Deniese Davis, Poppy Hanks, James Lopez, Issa Rae, Sara Rastogi
 
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – Given to the best feature made for under $1,000,000 (Award given to the writer, director and producer)
The Baltimorons
Director/Writer/Producer: Jay Duplass
Writer/Producer: Michael Strassner
Producers: David Bonnett Jr., Drew Langer

Boys Go to Jupiter
Director/Writer: Julian Glander

Eephus
Director/Writer/Producer: Carson Lund
Writer/Producer: Michael Basta
Writer: Nate Fisher
Producers: David Entin, Tyler Taormina

Esta Isla (This Island)
Directors/Writers/Producers: Cristian Carretero, Lorraine Jones Molina
Writer: Kisha Tikina Burgos

Familiar Touch
Director/Writer/Producer: Sarah Friedland
Producers: Alexandra Byer, Matthew Thurm
 
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Bentley
Train Dreams

Mary Bronstein
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Lloyd Lee Choi
Lucky Lu

Ira Sachs
Peter Hujar’s Day

Eva Victor
Sorry, Baby
 
BEST SCREENPLAY
Michael Angelo Covino, Kyle Marvin
Splitsville

Angus MacLachlan
A Little Prayer

James Sweeney
Twinless

Christian Swegal
Sovereign

Eva Victor
Sorry, Baby
 
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Andrew DeYoung
Friendship

Elena Oxman
Outerlands

Alex Russell
Lurker

Syreeta Singleton
One of Them Days

Constance Tsang
Blue Sun Palace
 
BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Everett Blunck
The Plague

Rose Byrne
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kathleen Chalfant
Familiar Touch

Chang Chen
Lucky Lu

Joel Edgerton
Train Dreams

Dylan O’Brien
Twinless

Keke Palmer
One of Them Days

Théodore Pellerin
Lurker

Tessa Thompson
Hedda

Ben Whishaw
Peter Hujar’s Day
 
BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Naomi Ackie
Sorry, Baby

Zoey Deutch
Nouvelle Vague

Kirsten Dunst
Roofman

Rebecca Hall
Peter Hujar’s Day

Nina Hoss
Hedda

Jane Levy
A Little Prayer

Archie Madekwe
Lurker

Kali Reis
Rebuilding

Jacob Tremblay
Sovereign

Haipeng Xu
Blue Sun Palace 
 
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE
Liz Larsen
The Baltimorons

Misha Osherovich
She’s the He

Kayo Martin
The Plague

SZA
One of Them Days

Tabatha Zimiga
East of Wall
 
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Alex Ashe
Peter Hujar’s Day

Norm Li
Blue Sun Palace

David J. Thompson
Warfare

Adolpho Veloso
Train Dreams

Nicole Hirsch Whitaker
Dust Bunny

BEST EDITING
Ben Leonberg
Good Boy

Carson Lund
Eephus

Fin Oates
Warfare

Sara Shaw
Splitsville

Sofía Subercaseaux
The Testament of Ann Lee
 
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast
The Long Walk
Director: Francis Lawrence
Casting Director: Rich Delia
Ensemble Cast: Judy Greer, Mark Hamill, Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Tut Nyuot, Joshua Odjick, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Garrett Wareing
 
BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
Come See Me in the Good Light
Director/Producer: Ryan White
Producers: Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Stef Willen

Endless Cookie
Director: Peter Scriver
Director/Producer: Seth Scriver
Producers: Dan Bekerman, Alex Ordanis, Jason Ryle, Chris Yurkovich

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
Director/Producer: Julia Loktev

The Perfect Neighbor
Director/Producer: Geeta Gandbhir
Producers: Sam Bisbee, Nikon Kwantu, Alisa Payne

The Tale of Silyan
Director/Producer: Tamara Kotevska
Producers: Jean Dakar, Anna Hashmi, Jordanco Petkovski
 
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
All That’s Left of You
Palestine, Jordan, Germany, Cyprus
Director: Cherien Dabis

On Becoming a Guinea Fowl
Zambia, UK, Ireland
Director: Rungano Nyoni

A Poet
Colombia
Director: Simón Mesa Soto

The Secret Agent
Brazil
Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho

Sirāt
Spain
Director: Oliver Laxe
 
PRODUCERS AWARD – The Producers Award, now in its 29th year, honors an emerging producer who, despite highly limited resources, demonstrates the creativity, tenacity and vision required to produce quality independent films. This award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.
Emma Hannaway
Luca Intili
Tony Yang

SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD – The Someone to Watch Award, now in its 32nd year, recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet received appropriate recognition. This award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.
Tatti Ribeiro
Director of Valentina

Neo Sora
Director of Happyend

Annapurna Sriram
Director of Fucktoys
 
TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The Truer Than Fiction Award, now in its 31st year, is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features who has not yet received significant recognition. This award includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.
Tony Benna
Director of André is an Idiot

Rajee Samarasinghe
Director of Your Touch Makes Others Invisible

Brittany Shyne
Director of Seeds
 
BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
Citizen Nation
Creator: Bret Sigler
Executive Producers: Christopher Buck, Kyra Darnton

Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time
Executive Producers: Jonathan Chinn, Simon Chinn, Ryan Coogler, Myles Estey, Ted Skillman, Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, Peter Nicks, Kalia King, Carolyn Payne, Sean David Johnson
Co-Executive Producer: Kelli Buchanan

Pee-wee as Himself
Executive Producers: Matt Wolf, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Benny Safdie, Josh Safdie, Paul Reubens, Candace Tomarken, Kyle Martin, Nancy Abraham, Lisa Heller, Sara Rodriguez

Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television
Executive Producers: Issa Rae, Montrel McKay, John Maggio, Rachel Dretzin, John Ealer, Jonathan Berry, Dave Becky, Nancy Abraham, Lisa Heller, Sara Rodriguez
Co-Executive Producers: Esther Dere, Zachary Herrmann

Vow of Silence: The Assassination of Annie Mae
Executive Producers: Ezra Edelman, Caroline Waterlow, Amy Kaufman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Riva Marker
Co-Executive Producer: Mark Becker
 
BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES (Award given to the Creator, Executive Producer, Co-Executive Producer)
Adolescence
Creators/Executive Producers: Jack Thorne, Stephen Graham
Executive Producers: Philip Barantini, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Nina Wolarsky, Hannah Walters, Mark Herbert, Emily Feller
Co-Executive Producers: Carina Sposato, Niall Shamma, Peter Balm

Common Side Effects
Creators/Executive Producers: Joe Bennett, Steve Hely
Executive Producers: Mike Judge, Greg Daniels, Dustin Davis, James Merrill, Sean Buckelew, Benjy Brooke, Kelly Crews, Suzanna Makkos
Co-Executive Producer: Dave King

Forever
Creator/Executive Producer: Mara Brock Akil
Executive Producers: Regina King, Susie Fitzgerald, Shana C. Waterman, Reina King, Anthony Hemingway, Judy Blume, Erika Harrison, Sara E. White
Co-Executive Producer: Jerron Horton

Mr Loverman
Executive Producers: Lennie James, Hong Khaou, Jo McClellan, Faye Ward, Hannah Farrell, Hannah Price

North of North
Creators/Executive Producers: Stacey Aglok MacDonald, Alethea Arnaquq-Baril
Executive Producers: Garry Campbell, Anya Adams, Susan Coyne, Miranda de Pencier
Co-Executive Producers: Teresa M. Ho, Michael Goldbach, Kathryn Borel Jr., JP Larocque
 
BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Sydney Chandler
Alien: Earth

Stephen Graham
Adolescence

Ethan Hawke
The Lowdown

Lennie James
Mr Loverman

Anna Lambe
North of North

Lola Petticrew
Say Nothing

Seth Rogen
The Studio

Lovie Simone
Forever

Michelle Williams
Dying for Sex

Noah Wyle
The Pitt
 
BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Ariyon Bakare
Mr Loverman

Babou Ceesay
Alien: Earth

Sharon D Clarke
Mr Loverman

Taylor Dearden
The Pitt

Erin Doherty
Adolescence

Stephen McKinley Henderson
A Man on the Inside

Poorna Jagannathan
Deli Boys

Xosha Roquemore
Forever

Jenny Slate
Dying for Sex

Ben Whishaw
Black Doves
 
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Asif Ali
Deli Boys

Wally Baram
Overcompensating

Owen Cooper
Adolescence

Michael Cooper Jr.
Forever

Ernest Kingsley Junior
Washington Black
 
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Chief of War
Ensemble Cast: Charlie Brumbly, Luciane Buchanan, Cliff Curtis, Brandon Finn, Moses Goods, Te Ao o Hinepehinga, Benjamin Hoetjes, Siua Ikale’o, Keala Kahuanui-Paleka, Mainei Kinimaka, Kaina Makua, Jason Momoa, Temuera Morrison, Te Kohe Tuhaka, James Udom
 

National Board of Review Awards

Best Film
One Battle After Another

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Actress
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Best Directorial Debut
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Breakthrough Performance
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay
Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

Best Animated Feature
Arco

Best International Film
It Was Just an Accident

Best Documentary
Cover-Up

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography
Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

Outstanding Achievement in Stunt Artistry
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Top 10 Films (in alphabetical order)
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Rental Family
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Wicked: For Good

Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)
2000 Meters to Andriivka
Come See Me in the Good Light
My Mom Jayne
Natchez
Orwell: 2+2=5

Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order)
Left-Handed Girl
The Love That Remains
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt

Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)
The Baltimorons
Bring Her Back
Father Mother Sister Brother
Friendship
Good Boy
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Mastermind
Rebuilding
Sorry, Baby
Urchin

Atlanta Film Critics Circle Awards

BEST FILM:
One Battle After Another

TOP 10 FILMS (ranked):
1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Weapons
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme
6. It Was Just an Accident
7. No Other Choice
8. Sentimental Value
9. Train Dreams
10. The Secret Agent

BEST LEAD ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
            Runner-up: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

BEST LEAD ACTRESS:
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
            Runner-up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
            Runner-up: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Madigan, Weapons
            Runner-up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST:
One Battle After Another
            Runner-up: Sinners

BEST DIRECTOR:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
            Runner-up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Sinners
            Runner-up: Weapons

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
One Battle After Another
            Runner-up: Hamnet

BEST DOCUMENTARY:
The Perfect Neighbor
            Runner-up: The Alabama Solution

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
It Was Just an Accident
            Runner-up: No Other Choice

BEST ANIMATED FILM:
KPop Demon Hunters
            Runner-up: Arco

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
One Battle After Another
            Runner-up: Sinners

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Sinners
            Runner-up: One Battle After Another

BEST STUNT WORK:
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
            Runner-up: F1

BEST VOICE PERFORMANCE:
Arden Cho, KPop Demon Hunters
            Runner-up: Jason Bateman, Zootopia 2

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

BEST FIRST FEATURE:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) Awards

BEST FILM
One Battle After Another 

BEST DIRECTOR
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

BEST ACTOR
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Madigan, Weapons

BEST SCREENPLAY
Marty Supreme

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sinners

BEST FIRST FILM
Eephus

BEST ANIMATED FILM
KPop Demon Hunters 

BEST NON-FICTION FILM
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
The Secret Agent 

SPECIAL AWARD
Museum of the Moving Image

STUDENT PRIZES
London Xhudo (Undergraduate, NYU) and Tan Zhiyuan (Graduate, The New School)

Monday, December 1, 2025

35th IFP Gotham Award Winners

Best Feature
One Battle After Another

Best Director
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Outstanding Lead Performance
Sopé Dìrísù, My Father’s Shadow

Outstanding Supporting Performance
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Breakthrough Performer
Abou Sangaré, Souleymane’s Story

Best Documentary Feature
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow

Breakthrough Director
Akinola Davies Jr., My Father’s Shadow

Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident

Best Adapted Screenplay
Pillion, Harry Lighton 

Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident, Jafar Panahi

Sunday, November 30, 2025

2025 British Independent Film Award (BIFA) Winners

Best British Independent Film
Pillion

Best British Short Film
Magid / Zafar

Best Debut Screenwriter
Harry Lighton, Pillion

Best Debut Director
Cal McMau, Wasteman

Best Debut Director – Feature Documentary
Myrid Carten, A Want in Her

Best Director
Akinola Davies Jr., My Father’s Shadow

Best Feature Documentary
A Want in Her

Best International Independent Film
Sentimental Value

Best Joint Lead
Tom Basden and Tim Key, The Ballad of Wallis Island

Best Lead Performance
Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Best Supporting Performance
Jay Lycurgo, Steve

Best Breakthrough Performance
Posy Sterling, Lollipop

Best Ensemble Performance
Joseph Quinn, D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Finn Bennett, Charles Melton, and Kit Connor, Warfare

Best Breakthrough Producer
Dhiraj Mahey, Ish

Best Screenplay
Tom Basden and Tim Key, The Ballad of Wallis Island

The Raindance Maverick Award
Myrid Carten, A Want in Her

Special Jury Prize
Warp Films

BIFA Cinema of the Year Award
The Magic Lantern Cinema in Tywyn

Richard Harris Award for Outstanding Contribution by an Actor to British Film
Emily Watson

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Critics Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture
Avatar: Fire & Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good

Other Contenders - No Other Choice, Jay Kelly, Weapons, Bugonia, The Secret Agent, F1: The Movie, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Nouvelle Vague, Is This Thing On?, Blue Moon, A House of Dynamite, Rental Family, The Testament of Ann Lee

Commentary - I didn't move anything yet in this category. No Other Choice is on the rise, F1 is going to be a craft hit, and Weapons is lurking. Is Wicked: For Good still in? Yes it got mediocre reviews, but it is still a huge hit, and I think its cast and technicals will still propel it to the top ten, at least for now. 

Best Director
Chloe Zhao "Hamnet"
Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident"
Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Joachim Trier "Sentimental Value"
Ryan Coogler "Sinners"

Other Contenders - Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme", Park Chan-wook "No Other Choice", Guillermo Del Toro "Frankenstein", Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent", Clint Bentley "Train Dreams", James Cameron "Avatar: Fire & Ash", Zach Cregger "Weapons", Noah Baumbach "Jay Kelly", Joseph  Kosinski "F1: The Movie", Jon M. Chu "Wicked For Good", Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?"

Commentary - I moved Panahi over Safdie, just knowing the demographic of the Director's Branch. Watch out for Chan-wook and del Toro to jump ahead. 

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Critics Nomination Predictions - Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Best Actor
Lee Byung-hun "No Other Choice"
Timothee Chalamet "Marty Supreme"
Leonardo DiCaprio "One Battle After Another"
Joel Edgerton "Train Dreams"
Michael B. Jordan "Sinners"

Other Contenders - Wagner Moura "The Secret Agent", Ethan Hawke "Blue Moon", George Clooney "Jay Kelly", Oscar Isaac "Frankenstein" Jesse Plemons "Bugonia", Jeremy Allen White "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere", Will Arnett "Is This Thing On?", Dwayne Johnson "The Smashing Machine", Russell Crowe "Nuremberg", Daniel Day-Lewis "Anemone", Brendan Fraser "Rental Family", Hugh Jackman "Song Sung Blue"

Commentary - I switch Wagner Moura, because while the movie has a lot of buzz, the buzz for Train Dreams right now keeps rising, which helps its star Joel Edgerton. Otherwise, the race remains the same. 

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley "Hamnet"
Cynthia Erivo "Wicked: For Good"
Chase Infiniti "One Battle After Another"
Renate Reinsve "Sentimental Value"
Amanda Seyfried "The Testament of Ann Lee" 

Other Contenders - Rose Byrne "If I Had Legs I Could Kick You", Kate Hudson "Song Sung Blue", Emma Stone "Bugonia", Julia Roberts "After the Hunt", Laura Dern "Is This Thing On?", Tessa Thompson "Hedda", Julia Garner "Weapons", Jennifer Lawrence "Die My Love", June Squibb "Eleanor the Great", Eva Victor "Sorry Baby", Jodie Foster "Vie Privée"

Commentary - Rose Byrne has lost some buzz, and there is sudden momentum for Amanda Seyfried. The other four remain intact, and the other potentials haven't moved, but are waiting on critics to weigh in. 

Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro "One Battle After Another"
Jacob Elrodi "Frankenstein" 
Paul Mescal "Hamnet"
Sean Penn "One Battle After Another" 
Stellan Skarsgard "Sentimental Value"

Other Contenders - Adam Sandler "Jay Kelly", Josh O'Connor "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery", Miles Caton "Sinners", Delroy Lindo "Sinners", Andrew Scott "Blue Moon", William H. Macy "Train Dreams", Jeremy Strong "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere", Alexander Skarsgard "Pillion", Jacobi Jupe "Hamnet"

Commentary - Early contenders Miles Caton and Adam Sandler have moved out of the top five, but critics love could bring them back in. They also both seem like perfect SAG candidates, so fans don't worry. In their place I have put Jacob Elrodi, whose star is rising as Frankenstein's is. I also added Benicio Del Toro, as the buzz for him, along with is co-star Sean Penn, continues to grow as well. The other three, still the top three, remained unchanged.

Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A'zion "Marty Supreme"
Elle Fanning "Sentimental Value"
Ariana Grande "Wicked: For Good"
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas "Sentimental Value"
Teyana Taylor "One Battle After Another"

Other Contenders - Regina Hall "One Battle After Another", Amy Madigan "Weapons", Glenn Close "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery", Wunmi Mosaku "Sinners", Gwyneth Paltrow "Marty Supreme", Emily Watson "Hamnet", Hailee Steinfeld "Sinners", Rebecca Ferguson "A House of Dynamite", Laura Dern "Jay Kelly", Emily Blunt "The Smashing Machine"

Commentary - Emily Blunt's fortunes have fallen off the map. In her slot, with the other four unchanged, I put in Odessa A'zion, who is getting raves for Marty Supreme. I also think that Regina Hall and Amy Madigan are still really strong, and don't discount Glenn Close. 



Saturday, November 29, 2025

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Critics Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
Maggie O'Farrell and Chloe Zhao "Hamnet"
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, and Jahyee Lee "No Other Choice"
Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar "Train Dreams"
Rian Johnson "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story"

Other Contenders - Will Tracy "Bugonia", Guillermo del Toro "Frankenstein", Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman "Wicked: For Good", Craig Brewer "Song Sung Blue", Holly Gent and Vincent Palmo "Nouvelle Vague", Harry Lighton "Pillion", Nia DeCosta "Hedda", James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver "Avatar: Fire & Ash", Scott Cooper "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere"

Commentary - I have not changed this one since my post-festival predictions. Bugonia is probably the safer choice for the fifth slot, but I just need to see some love from the guilds, because I think it might be not be voters cup of tea. Plus, after the longlists were released for the Critics Choice, there was a surprising amount of love for No Other Choice. I think it could be a stealth Oscar contender. Also, Frankenstein has moved up as its chances rise. 

Best Original Screenplay
Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident"
Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer "Jay Kelly"
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme"
Joachim Trier "Sentimental Value"
Ryan Cooler "Sinners"

Other Contenders - Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?", Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent", Zach Cregger "Weapons",  Robert Kaplow "Blue Moon", Brady Corbert and Mona Fastvold "The Testament of Ann Lee", Eva Victor "Sorry, Baby", Hikari "Rental 

Commentary - With A House of Dynamite's chances falling, I moved back in Jay Kelly. Despite its mixed reception, it still clearly has a lot of support, and its subject matter might save its Oscar chances. Other than that, the other four have not moved.