The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet "Marty Supreme"

Leonardo DiCaprio "One Battle After Another" 

Ethan Hawke "Blue Moon"

Michael B. Jordan "Sinners"

Wagner Moura "The Secret Agent"

Other Contenders - Jesse Plemons "Bugonia", Joel Edgerton "Train Dreams", Dwayne Johnson "The Smashing Machine"

Commentary - Seven actors, five slots. Only two do I feel like are locked: Chalamet and DiCaprio. I am hearing concerning signs for Michael B. Jordan, which is ridiculous. He has hit every mark, and his film is a huge contender. The question is does Wagner Moura's Globe win rocket him to the top five similar to Fernanda Torres last year, despite missing at SAG and BAFTA longlists? I think that he can. It is not often that a Globe winner misses at the Oscars. But I am also hearing that the buzz is not has high as it was for Torres, and he has stiff competition. Hawke's performance is being labeled as one of the best of the year, even if the film is only an outside potential for Best Picture. He 

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley "Hamnet"

Rose Byrne "If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You" 

Chase Infiniti "One Battle After Another"

Renate Reinsve "Sentimental Value"

Emma Stone "Bugonia"

Other Contenders - Kate Hudson "Song Sung Blue", Cynthia Erivo "Wicked: For Good", Tessa Thompson "Hedda", Amanda Seyfried "The Testament of Ann Lee", Eva Victor "Sorry Baby"

Commentary - It feels like six actresses for five slots. I hate to leave out Kate Hudson, because she really is good in Song Sung Blue, even if the film overall doesn't match her performance. She is also campaigning and her parents are campaigning, so don't be jaw-dropped if she sneaks in on the power of her performance and her popularity in the industry. All of that being said, I feel like one of the SAG nods is going to be replaced with Renate Reinsve, who just won at the European Film Awards, and I think is a lock for a BAFTA nod. Kate's is the only performance that doesn't have a potential Best Picture nominee attached to it with the exception of Rose Byrne, who is a lock. But Chase Infiniti and Emma Stone could miss out in favor of Kate if the voters go her way. Also, after Julia Robert's shoutout, watch out for Eva Victor. 

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro "One Battle After Another"

Jacob Elrodi "Frankenstein"

Paul Mescal "Hamnet"

Sean Penn "One Battle After Another"

Stellan Skarsgard "Sentimental Value"

Other Contenders - Miles Caton "Sinners", Delroy Lindo "Sinners", Adam Sandler "Jay Kelly", Andrew Scott "Blue Moon", William H. Macy "Train Dreams"

Commentary - This is one of the few races I feel decent about the top five. Miles Caton got in at SAG, and then Delroy Lindo got on the BAFTA Longlists. This showcases the Sinners voters could be splitting their votes and neither gets in. I cannot imagine Stellan Skarsgard missing out like he did at SAG, and Caton is the probably the one that misses out. 

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A'Zion "Marty Supreme"

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas "Sentimental Value"

Amy Madigan "Weapons"

Wunmi Mosaku "Sinners"

Teyana Taylor "One Battle After Another"

Other Contenders - Ariana Grande "Wicked: For Good", Emily Watson "Hamnet", Gwyneth Paltrow "Marty Supreme", Elle Fanning "Sentimental Value", Emily Blunt "The Smashing Machine"

Commentary - Is Ariana Grande really out? She has hit all of the notes, but Wicked: For Good just keeps slipping, and I replaced her today to SAG Nominee Odessa A'Zion, who also made the BAFTA Longlists and is in a bigger Best Picture contender. Technically, that means that I swapped Lilleaas for Grande, but I really think she is in better shape than the SAG nods would tell you. Also watch out for Emily Watson and Elle Fanning.