Will Tracy "Bugonia"
Guillermo Del Toro "Frankenstein"
Maggie O'Farrell and Chloe Zhao "Hamnet"
Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar "Train Dreams"
Other Contenders - Rian Johnson "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story", James Vanderbilt "Nuremberg", Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, and Jahyee Lee "No Other Choice", Craig Brewer "Song Sung Blue"
Commentary - Hamnet and One Battle After Another are set, but the others are potential toss-ups. Bugonia has defied my odds and just continued to show up everywhere. I think its gets rewarded here. Train Dreams duo are favorites among writers, after Sing Sing's nod last year. Finally, I wonder if the power of Frankenstein will favor it here, but I am weary of a Rian Johnson three-peat, No Other Choice, and Nuremberg as upsets.
Best Original Screenplay
Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident"
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme"
Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent"
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt "Sentimental Value"
Ryan Coogler "Sinners"
Other Contenders - Zach Cregger "Weapons", Eva Victor "Sorry, Baby", Robert Kaplow "Blue Moon", Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, and Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?", Noah Oppenheim "A House of Dynamite", Holly Gent and Vincent Palmo "Nouvelle Vague", Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer "Jay Kelly"
Commentary - I feel like this is one of those eight films for five slot races. I am confident about Sinners and Marty Supreme, and even Sentimental Value coming through with the European contingency. The last two slots are a mess. I am going with The Secret Agent (I think a BP Nominee) and It Was Just an Accident (I still think it has voters who love it), but I may switch to Weapons, Sorry Baby (thanks to Julia Roberts), or Blue Moon as we get closer to Thursday.
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