The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat "Frankenstein"

Max Richter "Hamnet"

Daniel Lopatin "Marty Supreme"

Jonny Greenwood "One Battle After Another"

Ludwig Göransson "Sinners"

Other Contenders - Bryce Dessner "Train Dreams", Kangding Ray "Sirat", Hans Zimmer "F1: The Movie", Jerskin Fendrix "Bugonia", Nicholas Britell "Jay Kelly", Volker Bertelmann "A House of Dynamite", Hildur Guðnadóttir "Hedda", Stephen Schwartz and John Powell "Wicked: For Good", Simon Franglen "Avatar: Fire & Ash", Lesley Barber "Diane Warren: Relentless"

Commentary - I feel good about Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Frankenstein. I am leaning into the overall popularity of Marty Supreme and Hamnet, but this is a category that doesn't always go with the grain. Train Dreams is a real spoiler, Sirat surprised in the shortlists, and never discount names like Zimmer, Fendrix, Britell, and Guonadottir. Wicked and Avatar may be slipping, but their music is still top notch, and I will not be surprised if this music branch double reward Diane Warren's documentary. 

Best Original Song

Come See Me in the Good Light - Salt Then Sour Then Sweet

Diane Warren: Relentless - Dear Me

KPop Demon Hunters - Golden

Sinners - I Lied to You

Wicked: For Good - The Girl in the Bubble

Other Contenders - Train Dreams - Train Dreams, F1: The Movie - Drive, Sinners - Last Time (I See the Sun), Avatar: Fire & Ash - Dream as One, Wicked: For Good - No Place Like Home

Commentary - Always a fun category, I think I Lied to You, Golden, and Dear Me are locks. The other two slots are really in the air. I am going with at least one Wicked song, but it really is fading. I also include a surprise potential with the Sara Bareilles song from Come See Me in the Good Light. This is a category where documentaries often surprise. But Train Dreams, Drive, Last Time, Dream as One, and even No Place Like Home can still make the cut.

Best Sound

F1: The Movie

Avatar: Fire & Ash

One Battle After Another

Sirat

Sinners

Other Contenders - Avatar: Fire & Ash, x, Wicked: For Good, Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning, Superman, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Commentary - Avatar Fire & Ash missing completely at MPSE and Wicked only getting one nod upends the normal narrative for this category. Maybe the big sound movies this year are just not as strong? Or maybe I'm missing the mark. In their place, I put Sirat (after The Zone of Interest won, I look for that unique nod), and Frankenstein, which did well at MPSE, showcasing industry support. I feel good about One Battle, Sinners, and F1. Also look out for Superman and Mission: Impossible

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire & Ash

F1: The Movie

The Lost Bus

Sinners

Superman

Other Contenders - Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good, Tron: Ares, The Electric State, Jurassic World: Rebirth 

Commentary - Avatar is a given, as is F1 and Sinner. Superman is a the big superhero movie that could breakthrough, and the bake off feedback says The Lost Bus is going to be a surprise nod. That leaves out Wicked: For Good, which could be a symptom of its decline, or my ignorance. Frankenstein is the wild card here. They made such a big deal about not using AI or too many special effects, and it may cost them an easy nomination.