Olivia Wilde "The Invite"
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo "La Bola Negra"
Christopher Nolan "The Odyssey"
Martin McDonagh "Wild Horse Nine"
Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim "You Can See Anything"
Other Contenders - Phil Lord and Chris Miller "Project Hail Mary", Ryusuke Hamaguchi,
"All of a Sudden", Denis Villeneuve "Dune: Part Three", David Fincher "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth", Jesse Eisenberg "The Debut", Cristian Mungiu "Fjord", Lee Chang-dong "Possible Love", Alejandro González Iñárritu "Digger", Luca Guadagnino "Artificial", Siân Heder "Being Heumann", Tony Gilroy "Behemoth!", Mike Leigh "Tender Loving Care", Peter Farrelly "I Play Rocky", Jordan Firstman "Club Kid", Curry Barker "Obesession", Travis Knight "Wildwood", Robert Eggers "Werwulf", Danny Boyle "Ink", Antoine Fuqua "Michael", Kane Parsons "Backrooms", Steven Spielberg "Disclosure Day", Andrew Haigh "A Long Winter"
Commentary - I feel good about Christopher Nolan and Ambrossi/Calvo at this point, but that is kind of it. Martin McDonagh also feels good as his recent track record with voters suggests he and the film will do well. Olivia Wilde has held on for The Invite, but I feel like that one may not last the onslaught. I also worry about You Can See Anything. No documentary has ever gotten a BP/BD Nod, but people are going nuts for its chances. So who replaces those two if things go differently? Lord and Miller are populist choices, which may hurt them with the directors. Denis Villenueve is overdue for another directors nod, but can he get in after missing out for the first two parts of Dune? There are a bunch of solid international film contenders, and usually at least one, often two have made the cut recently. So maybe Hamaguchi, Mungiu, or Chang-dong. Previous nominees and winners in this category like David Fincher, Steven Spielberg, Danny Boyle, Mike Leigh will compete with previous nominees and winners in other categories like Jesse Eisenberg, Luca Guadagnino, Tony Gilroy, and Sian Heder. Finally lookout for Eggers, Knight, Fuqua, Parsons, Haigh, Firstman, Barker, and Parsons, to breakthrough.
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