The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Director

Best Picture

Bugonia

F1: The Movie

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Other Contenders - Sirat, Weapons, It Was Just an Accident, Avatar: Fire & Ash, Wicked: For Good, No Other Choice, Blue Moon, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Jay Kelly, Sorry Baby, Nuremberg

Commentary - Okay so the top five are easily Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle, and Sinners. The other five? I think Bugonia has hit everything it needed to, and despite its weirdness, has played well with the industry. I also think despite the SAG snub that Sentimental Value is still getting a lot of love on Thursday. That leaves three slots. After Sing Sing's snub, I think Train Dreams can finally cross the line, but I'm still not sure. After The Secret Agent did well at the Globes, it looks like the second big international contender. Finally, I think F1 has the old school Academy voters mesmerized. But Sirat made so many shortlists, Weapons got a PGA Nod, It Was Just an Accident has been predicated all year and still has prestige, Avatar and Wicked are legacy, and some of the potential surprises include No Other Choice, Blue Moon, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Jay Kelly, Sorry Baby, and yes, even Nuremberg. 

Best Director

Guillermo Del Toro "Frankenstein" 

Chloe Zhao "Hamnet"

Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"

Joachim Trier "Sentimental Value"

Ryan Coogler "Sinners"

Other Contenders - Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme", Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident", Kleber Mendonca Filho "The Secret Agent", Oliver Laxe "Sirat" Yorgos Lanthimos "Bugonia", Park Chan-wook "No Other Choice", Clint Bentley "Train Dreams", Kaouther Ben Hania "The Voice of Hind Rajab"

Commentary - The only one I feel safe about is Paul Thomas Anderson. Genuinely, that's it. I can see any of the other four missing out for a surprise. I think there are ten people that can get these five slots. I'm worried about Ryan Coogler, but Sinners is so strong. I'm worried about Chloe Zhao, but Hamnet is so strong. But sometimes the film is strong and the Directors go their own way. I also think a legend like Guillermo Del Toro is bait for these voters, especially for such a visual production. I had bumped out Trier for Safdie, but European Film Award Best Director winners have done well, and in many cases, surprised in recent years. I think he has the European contingency on his side. But does he bump out Safdie, which I am predictions, or Coogler or Del Toro? Then there are the international names that could surprise like Panahi, Filho, Laxe, Lanthimos (a real potential surprise), Chan-Wook, Hania. Finally, are we underestimating Clint Bentley? Thursday morning will be a fun one to watch.