Sunday, October 25, 2026

The Oscar Narrative - Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions: Best Actor

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Nomination Predictions
Matt Damon "The Odyssey"'
Ryan Gosling "Project Hail Mary"
John Malkovich "Wild Horse Nine"
Andrew Scott "Elsinore"
John Turturro "The Only Living Pickpocket in New York"

Runners Up - Jafaar Jackson "Michael", Tom Cruise "Digger", Sebastian Stan "Fjord", Pedro Pascal "Behemoth!", Robert Pattinson "Primetime", Anthony Ippolito "I Play Rocky",  Yura Borisov "Artificial", Seth Rogen "The Invite", David Corenswet "Mr. Irrelevant", Austin Abrams "Whalefall", Austin Abrams "Resident Evil", Mahershala Ali "Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother", Brad Pitt "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth", Jordan Firstman "Club Kid", Robert Aramayo "I Swear", Timothée Chalamet "Dune: Part III", Nathan Fielder "You Can See Everything", Aaron Taylor Johnson "Werewulf", Fred Hechinger "A Long Winter", Jack O'Connell "Ink"

Commentary - An interesting race with a lot of contenders from potential Oscar hopefuls, and not has many from the slam dunks. Let's start with the latter. Right now Matt Damon and John Malkovich seem like locks as their films are big BP Contenders. I also think that Ryan Gosling can hang on and manage to still be a potent contender as the critics awards start rolling in. Andrew Scott got a huge boost when Elsinore did so well at TIFF, and is positioning himself as a real contender. Finally, I am a bit up in the air about the last slot. I see a lot of love for veteran actor John Turturro to finally get an Oscar nod for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. So I am putting him in, but he and the film need some help soon to keep his hopes alive. Beyond those five, Jaafar Jackson and Tom Cruise are still in the mix, but will have to overcome the mixed reactions to their films. Fjord seemed like it was going to do really well, but Sebastian Stan seems like an outsider (unlike Reinsve). Pascal, Pattinso, Ippolito, Borisov, and Rogen all appear in films that could be bigger contenders (which might bring them into the conversation). Austin Abrams as two shots for his breakthrough year. Pevious nominees and winners like Brad Pitt, Mahershala Ali, and Timothee Chalamet are battling it out with potential first time nominees like Jordan Firstman, Aaron Taylor Johnson, Jack O'Connell, Robert Aramayo, David Corenswet, and the true wildcard of the season, Nathan Fielder. 

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