State of the Race: July Oscar Predictions - Best Picture

July Predictions
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty

Other Contenders - Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby, The Silver Linings Playbook, The Sessions, Hyde Park on Hudson, Trouble With the Curve, Brave, Moonrise Kingdom, To the Wonder, Rust & Bone, Amour, Flight, Imogene, This is 40, Never Back Down, Killing Them Softly, The Avengers, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Quartet, Gangster Squad

Commentary - There are so many films unseen, its hard to discern which ones will play well with the Academy. For now, I am not sure about the tone of Anna Karenina, and until I hear positive reviews. I will continue to be skeptical of The Great Gatsby. But there are certain films that look like real contenders. The biggest question will be until the nominations are announced, will The Dark Knight Rises get in? Well, since they expanded this category because of its predecessor's lack of a nomination, I think that it will be a strong contender. This summer's other big success story has been Beasts of the Southern Wild, which has  Tree of Life-esque presence, and could be the big indie hit this year. Some of the bigger productions in play include Tom Hooper's Les Miserables, which looks epic and perfectly toned from its trailer, The Hobbit, which could recapture some of the LOTR love, Django Unchained, which has an Inglourious Basterds feel, and finally, Spielberg's next great historical epic Lincoln. There are also films like Zero Dark Thirty, from one of the best action directors working today, Kathryn Bigelow, the beautifully shot Life of Pi from Ang Lee, and Paul Thomas Anderson's latest work The Master. Finally, Ben Affleck's last film The Town just barely missed the cut for Best Picture, but Argo looks great, and it could finally be his breakthrough.