State of the Race: July Oscar Predictions - Best Actress

2012 July Oscar Predictions
Marion Cotillard "Rust & Bone"
Viola Davis "Won't Back Down"
Helen Hunt "The Sessions"
Laura Linney "Hyde Park on Hudson"
Quvenzhane Wallis "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Other Contenders - Kiera Knightley "Anna Karenina", Carey Mulligan "The Great Gatsby", Maggie Smith "Quartet", Meryl Streep "Hope Springs", Kristen Wiig "Imogene", Maggie Gyllenhaal "Never Back Down", Amy Adams "Trouble With the Curve", Jennifer Lawrence "The Hunger Games", Rachel Weisz "The Deep Blue Sea", Michelle Williams "Take This Waltz", Dakota Fanning "Effie", Nicole Kidman "The Paperboy", Mary Elizabeth Winstead "Smashed", Emmanuelle Riva "Amour", Rosemarie Dewitt "Your Sister's Sister", Rachel McAdams "To the Wonder", Leslie Mann "This is 40", Emma Stone "The Amazing Spider-Man"

Commentary - Not as deep of a race as I assumed, which I think paves the way for a surprise contender to emerge. I have removed Sandra Bullock as Gravity was pushed to next year, and Kiera Knightley, cause I'm just not sure on how the film will be received (the same reason I am keeping Carey Mulligan just on the cusp of getting another nod). But some of the contenders remain. I have kept Viola Davis up here, although I think that, at least from the trailer that she could go supporting and Gyllenhaal could go lead, or they could go for a double lead manuever. Either way, after last year's near miss, Davis probably has the most heat. Helen Hunt remains in this race, as The Sessions (changed from The Surrogate), continues to garner good buzz, and she is a former winner. While I'm not sure about Hyde Park on Hudson, I am sure that Laura Linney will knock it out of the park. If the film is huge, look out for her name throughout the season. Finally, my two newcomers. Most of you will probably think I am crazy for not including Meryl Streep. She just won and is a nomination machine. But Hope Springs looks more like It's Complicated than Devil Wears Prada, and now that she has finally won her third, maybe voters won't be aching to reward her again so soon. Instead, first I went with Marion Cotillard, who since her Oscar win has become an American movie star, although for some reason can't garner enough Oscar attention. Going back to her French roots, with a well-known director, combined with her Dark Knight Rises role makes me think this could be the year she finally gets that second nomination. Plus the reviews so far have been nothing but praise for her performance. The last slot goes to this year's brand new surprise star. The little tyke of Beasts of the Southern Wild is apparently a force to be reckoned with and gives a hell of a performance even for such a young age. I think she could make history and receive an Oscar nomination.