State of the Race - July Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

July Predictions
Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
John Hawkes "The Sessions"
Bill Murray "Hyde Park on Hudson"
Joaquin Phoenix "The Master"
Denzel Washington "Flight"

Other Contenders - Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables", Richard Gere "Armitage", Leonardo Dicaprio "The Great Gatsby", Clint Eastwood "Trouble With the Curve", Jamie Foxx "Django Unchained", BeRussell Crowe "Les Miserables", Ben Affleck "Argo", Martin Freeman "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey", Bruce Willis "Moonrise Kingdom", Suraj Sharma "Life of Pi", Tommy Lee Jones "Hope Springs", Bradley Cooper "The Silver Linings Playbook", Liam Neeson "The Grey", Logan Lerman "The Perks of Being a Wallflower", Chris O'Dowd "The Sapphires", Ben Affleck "To the Wonder", Christopher Plummer "Barrymore"

Commentary - So many A-list names are involved, it is hard to narrow them down. Initially I had Richard Gere, and he is still a possibility but his film is small, and he seems to be the only thing about it people are talking about. I also had Philip Seymour Hoffman, but as explained in the Supporting Actor post, I have switched he and Joaquin Phoenix, as it looks like he is now the lead character, and a great possibility as the debut of The Master approaches. John Hawkes has also remained on the list as The Sessions, formerly The Surrogate continues to garner a lot of great buzz, especially for his performance and Helen Hunt's. And while the trailer for Hyde Park on the Hudson was a little underwhelming when it came to Bill Murray's protrayal of FDR, I think that it still has enough buzz, and he is still a popular enough actor to make it work. I have added Denzel Washington, while keeping the Les Mis guys at bay, because I am thoroughly intrigued by the trailer for Flight. I think it looks highly entertaining, and that there might be a deeper subplot buried underneath the action flashiness of its first look. Plus he is Denzel, and this looks like a meaty role. Finally, I, of course, put Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln, as he begins what seems to be his inevitable march towards a third Academy Award.