2012 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Drama Series

2012 Nomination Predictions
1. Mad Men
2. Downton Abbey
3. Homeland
4. Breaking Bad
5. The Good Wife
6. Game of Thrones

Other Contenders - Boardwalk Empire, Smash, Justified, Dexter, House, Boss, Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Grey's Anatomy, The Walking Dead

Commentary - Essentially, there are seven shows that have the best chance of getting in, with shows like Smash and Justified as more outside contenders. Mad Men could become the first Drama Series to win five in a row, but with last year's total haul being only two, and two new contenders both having the prestige to go all the way, I think that it could be upset. Probably its biggest competition will be Downton Abbey. It is the only other show nominated which has won a top prize, and it has a snob factor that older voters will love. The other one is Homeland. It discusses an important and pertinent topic,and has been the hit new show of the season. Also, talk around the blogosphere is that it is on the tongues of many Emmy voters. Solidly in fourth is Breaking Bad. It may be a critic's haven, but in terms of winning, I think it is just too intense, and a not snobby enough to ever take the top prize. Some people may be surprised that I included The Good Wife, but for a very good reason. Not only is it an excellent show (and my personal favorite), it is also the only broadcast show besides Smash that is actually in contention. I think that the powers that be within the big 4 community will rally around to make sure that they are not completely overcome by cable shows. It is the last slot that I am having trouble with. Boardwalk Empire has the prestige and guild support, but I wonder how passionate its fan base is. How many people will put it at number 1 on their ballots! In comparison, Game of Thrones has a very passionate fan base, and I think has just enough support to overcome its rival. Although if the snob factor comes into play again, I think that Empire will overcome its HBO partner. A tough choice indeed.