State of the Race: July Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

2012 July Oscar Predictions
Amy Adams "The Master"
Annette Bening "Imogene"
Sally Field "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Olivia Williams "Hyde Park on the Hudson"

Other Contenders - Vanessa Redgrave "Song for Marion", Judi Dench "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Maggie Smith "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Jennifer Lawrence "The Silver Linings Playbook", Jacki Weaver "The Silver Linings Playbook", Isla Fisher "The Great Gatsby", Pauline Collins "Quartet", Marion Cotillard "The Dark Knight Rises", Anne Hathaway "The Dark Knight Rises", Helena Bonham Carter "Great Expectations", Kerry Washington "Django Unchained". Nicole Kidman "The Paperboy", Michelle Pfeiffer "People Like Us", Olivia Colman "Hyde Park on the Hudson", Samantha Barks "Les Miserables", Reese Witherspoon "Mud", Julianne Moore "What Maisie Knew", Laura Dern "The Master", Jessica Chastain "Lawless", Melissa McCarthy "This is 40"

Commentary - An interesting race with so many big names, the question always remains, where is the surprise nominee? Who is going to breakout from the pack? With the year she is having, between an apparently great role in TDKR (no I still haven't seen it), and another flashy role in Les Miserables where she gets to show off her voice, Anne Hathaway is surely at the head of the pack going into the fall. Hot on her heels is another young star in Amy Adams. The Master looks like a real contender and after three nominations, she is defintely an Academy favorite. The fourth time could be the charm for her. Some veterans also join the race. As the controlling mother in Kristin Wiig's new comedy, Imogene, Annette Bening with have a baity role, and is long overdue for an Oscar. The fact that it is a comedy could hurt her, although after the success of Bridesmaids, maybe those altakaka voters have finally loosened up a bit. Sally Field could also join the race for the first time since the 1980's. Mary Todd Lincoln is a big role in a really big film, and I think she is back in for sure. In the final slot I am going with the hardworking, underrated Olivia Williams. Playing Eleanor Roosevelt is a tough role, and if she nails it, maybe people will finally recognize just how good she is. In terms of the other contenders, there are a few on the cusp. After seeing the trailer for Django Unchained, I am not sure that Kerry Washington will have a big enough role, although many have won with just a few minutes of screen time. And the more I thought about it, if Vanessa Redgrave hasn't been able to capitalize on this late career surge yet, will Song for Marion change voters minds? I also have the two Marigold Hotel women on the list, although the film may be too light. Watch out for Isla Fisher, HBC, Lawrence and Weaver, Colman, Barks, and Chastain as possible spoilers as the season goes on.