The Oscar Narrative: January Nomination Predictions - Best Director

January Nomination Predictions

David Fincher "Mank" 

Regina King "One Night in Miami"

Spike Lee "Da 5 Bloods" 

Aaron Sorkin "The Trial of the Chicago 7" 

Chloe Zhao "Nomadland"

Other Contenders - Lee Isaac Chung "Minari", Paul Greengrass "News of the World", George C. Wolfe "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom", Shaka King "Judas and the Black Messiah", Emerald Fennell "Promising Young Woman", Florian Zeller "The Father", Darius Marder "Sound of Metal", Kelly Reichardt "First Cow", Sofia Coppola "On the Rocks", Sam Levinson "Malcolm & Marie", Christopher Nolan "Tenet", Thomas Vinterberg "Another Round", Lee Daniels "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

Commentary - This race is always a tight one, and even when we think we know what is going to happen, the director's branch always throws in a wildcard. Chloe Zhao feels like the easy front runner for this award right now. Nomadland may stumble at SAG, and I'm still not convinced it is a slam-dunk for Best Picture, but as we have seen in recent years, that does not always affect Best Director. A lot of folks are sleeping on David Fincher, and maybe they know something I don't. But I feel like Oscar voters are going to respect Fincher's work, particularly the directors. Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7 sees a much improved effort from his directorial debut, and he is getting a lot of deservedly positive attention. Spike Lee could get his second nomination in this category as Da 5 Bloods continues to do really well on the critical circuit, and has clearly not been forgotten since its early summer debut. Finally, while I have this horrible feeling that the director's branch might snub her, I am sticking with Regina King. I think One Night in Miami will do much better with the guilds than with critics, and it will be hard to ignore an artist so well-liked in this industry. But there are a lot of folks that could easily crash this party, which really feels fluid in this early race, unlike many of the acting races. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom keeps doing well, but George C. Wolfe seems missing often in its success. The Academy could reverse that trend. Lee Isaac Chung feels like the kind of contender the directors will love, if it can keep up the buzz. Paul Greengrass is a favorite among this branch, and News of the World is a thrilling, old school technical achievement. Previous nominees Christopher Tenet, Sofia Coppola, and Lee Daniels are hoping to return. Newcomers Florian Zeller, Shaka King, Emerald Fennell, and Darius Marder are making a splash. Thomas Vinterberg could be the foreign-film representative in this category, a move the directors often surprise us with on nomination morning. Sam Levinson's film is making a late-breaking splash, and don't forget Kelly Reichardt, another contender that feels right up this branch's alley.